This week, Max and Maria were joined by military analysts Michael Kofman and Rob Lee to discuss the latest phase of the war in Ukraine. Max and Maria asked them for their thoughts on the ongoing Ukrainian offensive in Kursk, and whether or not this seizure of Russian territory by Kyiv exposes Russian threats of escalation as hollow. If they are hollow, does that mean Western "red lines" on certain kinds of aid to Ukraine should be reassessed?

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[–] tal 4 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

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transcript 5

Max: Mike, closing thoughts?
Mike: Think Rob pretty much nailed it. We have had similar experiences. Need to see how next few weeks play out. One of my big questions I have right now is that Russia and Ukraine face a dilemma. Ukraine can try to expand Kursk salient with more troops, see if it can try to cause Russia to divert more forces, try to set something else up, some other operation. However, that risks overextension and more risk in Donetsk. More territory they hold, more risk and tradeoffs. Russia also faces dilemma, which is can continue focusing on current offensives, but if they don't counterattack, then they take risk that Ukraine will expand salient and will become worse and more embarrassing and that Ukraine will have time to further dig in and entrench. If they don't mount a counterattack, it will be harder to displace Ukraine out of Kursk, and Ukraine could be holding this Kursk salient well into next year, which is basically what they intend to do. End of the day, military strategy is about tradeoffs. Seeing degree of decision points for both Ukraine and Russia as to how to move forward. Both Rob and I somewhat skeptical that Kursk can really change things, on the other hand, worth a shot, interesting to see what it can do for Ukraine. Also interesting to see how it affects Ukraine's ability to defend at Pokrovsk and how that plays out. If there is an operationally-significant breakthrough by Russia, if Pokrovsk isn't stabilized in coming months, may be linked to Kursk. Depends on how those things play out. Don't know details of front, haven't been there in two months. Ukrainian planning is emergent. Can't predict what they will do next, just as we didn't predict Kursk. Looking at Kursk, hard for us to say even what will happen next month.
Max: War is contingent [this is a favorite Kofman catchphrase], and there is a podcast for that. Thanks so much.