this post was submitted on 25 Sep 2024
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Big kid punches little kid “Stop” says little kid
Big kid punches other little kid “Stop” says other little kid
Big kid punches first little kid again and takes his lunch money “Stop” says little kids
Bunch of little kids band together “If you punch again we’re going to punch you back” (raises fists in intimidating stance)
Big kid grumbles and talks about running over all the little kids with his car…
——
NATO isn’t stupid. As a whole, they don’t want to invade Russia. They are there to deter future territorial land grabs and they want to maintain the status quo as it’s good for trade. Quality of life is pretty good or getting better on this side of the fence.
I get it, a whole bunch of kids around your house can be intimidating. They have access to the neighborhood road (Polish corridor). Your little brother started thinking they were cool.
The way this could have and should have gone about is more trade, more connectivity, more upward mobility. But your ruling class got all weird about that, can’t be having western ideals infect the population, they were losing power. And so Russia went the xenophobic path and now we are here.
All the rhetoric. All the hype. All the saber rattling. It’s a form of control, to keep the Russian population in support of this war. To keep them scared so that Putin and his ilk stay in power. It’s a very myopic way of seeing the world.
They’ve rattled so hard that walking away isn’t an option anymore. Too much treasure and blood lost. It would shake Russia to its core. The Russian Vietnam as it were, right on your doorstep.
I don’t know what the end game is here. NATO is not going to capitulate. Russian leadership are backing themselves into a corner.
This rings true to me. I'm a westerner and I see how geo-politics is being handled and it really is a bunch of kids.
Not trying to do whataboutism, but its important to note that the insights on how Russian population are controlled with fear is echo'd throughout the world. US and its now inbred hatred for the word "communism", and its forced relation with Russia, etc is dissapointing.
If we manage to survive the current crisis /and/ manage to de-escelate, it will take generations of peaceful teachings for large powers to actually calm down. I find this scenerio unlikely.
European consumer price index (CPI) rose 18% in last 2 years:
https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/consumer-price-index-cpi
There is no public data after 2022 on happiness of EU population. How strange.
Non-aggression statement dispelled
on September 18, 2024:
https://www.uawire.org/estonia-signals-readiness-to-preemptively-strike-russia-to-defend-nato
Nobody defined what Russian preparation for aggression looks like.