this post was submitted on 24 Sep 2024
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If the polls are 2018 levels of accurate (within half a point) and current trends roughly hold this is more or less what the election is going to come down to. (And Nevada is completely worthless). (lemmy.world)
submitted 1 month ago by ThatOneKrazyKaptain@lemmy.world to c/neoliberal@lemmy.world
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Across both 538, RCP, and a few other reliable polling sites as of late the general overall trend is- North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona all go red, with the former weakening the most as it got the least investment. (his checks out as the third party balance nationally has shifted to be less hostile to Republicans. Get rid of third parties completely in 2020 for both sides partitioning the voters and Trump wins Georgia and Arizona then too)

Michigan has been very strongly blue, strongest in 2020 and second strongest in 2016(Nevada is slowly trending Red so ignore that). Wisconsin was super swingy the last two elections, having extremely bad polling and being the reddest of the rust belt both times. However, Tim Walz strengthens this state more than any other while losing Biden and not picking Shapiro weakens Pennsylvania more than most, so barring another massive upset it's going to be bluer than PA, solidly blue in most polls.

Nevada and Pennsylvania are the swingy states. Nevada has a slow weak red trend, Pennsylvania has had a ton of investment and stung from the Biden dropout. Nevada might have mattered in the Nebraska Law Change scenario, but without that it's worthless. Both have had tight polling for a while, albeit Nevada has more consistently leaned blue while Pennsylvania leaned red for a bit pre-debate.

Of course the polls could be wrong again. A 2022 style error and Democrats sweep the swing states and maybe pickup a pink state. A 2020 style error and everything not Michigan falls Red. 2016 level error means Michigan and Virginia too. But I don't see it happening. They've had two national elections to correct for Trump. They've had one big election post-Dobbs and several smaller ones to correct for that error(which was smaller than the Trump errors and made in the shadow of Post-2020 poll corrections). This is the first time both those factors are going head to head nationally and the pollsters have had a chance to weigh both of them. I don't expect badly wrong polls. But just a half a point off determines the election. Being dead on correct right now favors the democrats, but it didn't the day before the debate. It could go either way.

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[–] ThatOneKrazyKaptain@lemmy.world 0 points 1 month ago

This wasn’t meant to be a prediction and moreso a hypothetical because of how much discussion of polling error I hear from both sides. Like, what if the Polls are actually really good and accurate this time? This is what we’d get