11% of what it was the day he dropped out
ThatOneKrazyKaptain
joined 3 months ago
"Where's Joe? Kamawho? Doh I guess I'll just vote for Trump, I liked cheaper gas"
California is only 57%
Had Trump won in 2020, he’d have taken the fall for the Recession and Hyperinflation and it would have caused a 2008 effect. Populist Wave haulted, strangled in it’s crib by Coronachan.
Had Trump won in 2020, he’d be done now and his VP would still be the democracy respecting Pence.
Trump when elected in 2016 had no major plan and mostly left the employees of the state intact, and in 2020 the change was minimal. Now there’s a full blown scheme to control the government
In 2020 they didn’t know how much they could get away with. They’ve seen the limits now.
Winning in 2020 means no January 6th shattering the overton window and leading SCOTUS to some interesting choices about power.
2020-2024 had one Supreme Court Justice to appoint. Now there’s another 2 if not 3
In 2020 it would have been close. Now Democrats will have to regain ground, New Jersey New Hampshire and Minnesota are now Swing States.
2016 Trump had his populist wave weakened by Gary Johnson and Evan McMulin who blocked the popular vote and kept states like Colorado and New Mexico out of his hands. 2016 Trump sucked with Hispanics. That initial wave would have burnt out with the COVID fuckery. Instead Democrats slotted in, took the 4 worst possible years, and are handing it back having effectively both given them another shot in the arm and crippled themselves. There goes the court. This isn’t John Kerry, it’s Carter.
I’ve heard of 2020 hindsight, but this is ridiculous
Had Trump won in 2020, he’d have taken the fall for the Recession and Hyperinflation and it would have caused a 2008 effect. Populist Wave haulted, strangled in it’s crib by Coronachan.
Had Trump won in 2020, he’d be done now and his VP would still be the democracy respecting Pence.
Trump when elected in 2016 had no major plan and mostly left the employees of the state intact, and in 2020 the change was minimal. Now there’s a full blown scheme to control the government
In 2020 they didn’t know how much they could get away with. They’ve seen the limits now.
Winning in 2020 means no January 6th shattering the overton window and leading SCOTUS to some interesting choices about power.
2020-2024 had one Supreme Court Justice to appoint. Now there’s another 2 if not 3
In 2020 it would have been close. Now Democrats will have to regain ground, New Jersey New Hampshire and Minnesota are now Swing States.
2016 Trump had his populist wave weakened by Gary Johnson and Evan McMulin who blocked the popular vote and kept states like Colorado and New Mexico out of his hands. 2016 Trump sucked with Hispanics. That initial wave would have burnt out with the COVID fuckery. Instead Democrats slotted in, took the 4 worst possible years, and are handing it back having effectively both given them another shot in the arm and crippled themselves. There goes the court. This isn’t John Kerry, it’s Carter.
I’ve heard of 2020 hindsight, but this is ridiculous
Had Trump won in 2020, he’d have taken the fall for the Recession and Hyperinflation and it would have caused a 2008 effect. Populist Wave haulted, strangled in it’s crib by Coronachan.
Had Trump won in 2020, he’d be done now and his VP would still be the democracy respecting Pence.
Trump when elected in 2016 had no major plan and mostly left the employees of the state intact, and in 2020 the change was minimal. Now there’s a full blown scheme to control the government
In 2020 they didn’t know how much they could get away with. They’ve seen the limits now.
Winning in 2020 means no January 6th shattering the overton window and leading SCOTUS to some interesting choices about power.
2020-2024 had one Supreme Court Justice to appoint. Now there’s another 2 if not 3
In 2020 it would have been close. Now Democrats will have to regain ground, New Jersey New Hampshire and Minnesota are now Swing States.
2016 Trump had his populist wave weakened by Gary Johnson and Evan McMulin who blocked the popular vote and kept states like Colorado and New Mexico out of his hands. 2016 Trump sucked with Hispanics. That initial wave would have burnt out with the COVID fuckery. Instead Democrats slotted in, took the 4 worst possible years, and are handing it back having effectively both given them another shot in the arm and crippled themselves. There goes the court. This isn’t John Kerry, it’s Carter.
I’ve heard of 2020 hindsight, but this is ridiculous
Donnie's Back
HENCE MY POINT.
He stopped saying Mexicans or Hispanics and started saying Illegals for the most part. Boom.
Also I've seen a lot of 'first they came for the socialists' type posting about that. In a fucked up way that's actually the outcome the Democrats want. The other option is the Hispanics became 'honorary whites', the next Italian or Irish. Hispanic isn't even really a race in the sense that black or white or asian(or native american, technically those two are one race sorta long story), it's Mixed, European White - Slave Black - Native Mesoamerican, just mixed and mixing with other mixed so long you can't really pick it out. We usually call the whiter ones Hispanics and the ones with a lot more Native or Black mestizo or creole or...Native and Black. Hispanic Culture is heavily christian and European influenced, it can be integrated into that coalition without too much trouble.
If the established second generation Hispanics settle into reliable Republican or even just the men, that's a Southern Strategy tier realignment. The Democrats are fucked for a generation. Outgroups don't stay Outgroups forever, and we know how European Cultured Religious 'in-groups' do in the USA.
Think Carter. Nixon had a populist wave born out of the DNCs 1968 disaster destroying the Kennedy lead operation dating back years, it was big. Then a huge scandal knocked the wind out of him, populist wave was down, Democrats won with a safe white guy, mission accomplished? Except the economy imploded and a ton of foreign wars happened and everyone blamed 'histories greatest monster' and the Republican populist wave that would have died with Nixon got a round to breathe and the Democrats took the fall for the disaster in Carters term. 8 years of Reagan followed and then 4 years of Reagan 2, Texas Boogaloo. Except Reagan was old and JD Vance isn't.
I compared these threads to the one in 2016 announcing the win. Mostly different vibes(more awe and surprise and 'maybe it won't be so bad' and less horror), but two things in common.
- Brexit comparisons(2016 had more, but still)
- People blaming a dead beloved mammal for cursing the timeline(Squirrelboy is up there with Harambe now...)
-10
How much do you think the changing Third Party Landscape will effect this years election?
(lemmy.world)
Libertarian Party has been gradually weakening and had a massive internal schism in 2022 leading to sections of the hardliners defecting to Trump and many of the moderates ending up with RFK Jr(who dropped out to endorse Trump). Nominee is a Left Libertarian and for reasons they weren't even listed as a third party candidate on most polls or polling conglomerates until September as they weren't in the Top 5 which further hurt their outreach.
Green Party has bounced back as they got Jill Stein's namecred and benefited from being above the Libertarians in the rankings thanks to RFK.
Constitution Party(hard right) has been bleeding support since the Obama era, most of them have been leaving for Tea Party Republicans and the remainder is being siphoned off by Peter Solski's Moderate Christian Party.
The PSL is the fastest growing third party right now, overtaking the Constituion Party in 2020 for 3rd place and set to potentially overtake the Greens and Libertarians if they continue infighting and bleeding support.
Cornel West exists.
-4
Across both 538, RCP, and a few other reliable polling sites as of late the general overall trend is- North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona all go red, with the former weakening the most as it got the least investment. (his checks out as the third party balance nationally has shifted to be less hostile to Republicans. Get rid of third parties completely in 2020 for both sides partitioning the voters and Trump wins Georgia and Arizona then too)
Michigan has been very strongly blue, strongest in 2020 and second strongest in 2016(Nevada is slowly trending Red so ignore that). Wisconsin was super swingy the last two elections, having extremely bad polling and being the reddest of the rust belt both times. However, Tim Walz strengthens this state more than any other while losing Biden and not picking Shapiro weakens Pennsylvania more than most, so barring another massive upset it's going to be bluer than PA, solidly blue in most polls.
Nevada and Pennsylvania are the swingy states. Nevada has a slow weak red trend, Pennsylvania has had a ton of investment and stung from the Biden dropout. Nevada might have mattered in the Nebraska Law Change scenario, but without that it's worthless. Both have had tight polling for a while, albeit Nevada has more consistently leaned blue while Pennsylvania leaned red for a bit pre-debate.
Of course the polls could be wrong again. A 2022 style error and Democrats sweep the swing states and maybe pickup a pink state. A 2020 style error and everything not Michigan falls Red. 2016 level error means Michigan and Virginia too. But I don't see it happening. They've had two national elections to correct for Trump. They've had one big election post-Dobbs and several smaller ones to correct for that error(which was smaller than the Trump errors and made in the shadow of Post-2020 poll corrections). This is the first time both those factors are going head to head nationally and the pollsters have had a chance to weigh both of them. I don't expect badly wrong polls. But just a half a point off determines the election. Being dead on correct right now favors the democrats, but it didn't the day before the debate. It could go either way.
14
538 predicts a 2020 sized Harris victory, Georgia and North Carolina flip. THQ predicts a tight Harris win, mostly in the Rust Belt & maybe a NC grab? RCP predicts a tight Trump victory via Pennsylvania.
All 3 agree on Georgia going red and Michigan and Wisconsin going blue. Those states have held their colors firm for quite some time.
6
Whether former swing states, captured ex-solid states, or states that have always had close margins. I picked 7 for each side(I was gonna do 3, then 4, then 5, but the number on one side always felt awkward like one side had a weird outlier edge case or something. Pink has a clean base of 4 while Cyan has two main ones and then like, 5 is the next one where it all fits)
Pink States are Iowa, Ohio, and Florida(former Swing States in the 2000-2016 era), Texas, South Carolina, and Alaska (Red States weakening) and Indiana(2008 pick up that's been red before and after).
Cyan States are Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, and New Hampshire(former swing states in the 2000-2016 era), plus Maine and Minnesota(perpetually teetering states) and New Jersey(Blue state weakening).
Every trustworthy non-partison poll in Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina has gone exactly one way. The Wisconsin and Michigan red polls are either old or by very Republican sources, the Blue Georgia poll and dead even North Carolina polls were by Democratic Party sponsors Progress Action and Carolina forward.
Trump couldn't comfortably get above 'dead even' in Wisconsin and Michigan when it was still Biden and he had the shooting bump, just in very right leaning polls like Trafalgar, and now with Walz? Gone. Harris can't get ahead at the near peak of a solid blue wave in the Media outside of known biased pollsters, she isn't taking them in November barring a miracle. Georgia has been a GOP spending ground since they lost it in 2020.
This is going to come down to Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, and it's going to come down to whether or not Nebraska passes the winner take all law.
Pennsylvania is the single most important. Win it, and you win unless everything else here goes wrong(Nebraska law not in favor, lose Arizona and Nevada, lose one of the 4 probably safe-ish states mentioned above). You wanna win without PA, everything else needs to go right. If Nebraska does pass it's still the most important single state(it plus any other state is a win while Nevada + Arizona isn't) but winning without it becomes plausible albeit it would be a tie.
19
2024 Election if every state voted according to current polling...AND Nebraska passed it's Winner Take All law.
(lemmy.world)
(That's a tie, BTW)
view more: next ›
It's 11% of what it was in late July if that helps