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Eliminate the fixed size of the court entirely. We don't need to define 9 or 15 people.
Every presidential term, the president appoints two new candidates, 9-15 months after the presidential election, and 9-15 months after the midterms. We do not fill any vacated seats.
That resolves the problems with multiple seats unexpectedly swinging on a small court, and limits the effects a single president can have on the court. Yes, the numerical swings can be as large, but the percentage swings will not be; the court will likely fluctuate between 15-20 justices.
Now to fix the Senate playing games...
First, we establish a line of succession with the circuit courts. The chief judges of the circuits, in line of seniority, then every other active judge. Every case before SCOTUS requires at least 6 justices to hear the case. If the court falls below 6, the next judge in line is automatically elevated to the court. If the court is larger than 6, but due to recusals or abstentions, fewer than 6 are able to hear the case, the next judges in line are automatically, but temporarily elevated to hear that case. Only when we have exhausted all judges from the district courts does the president get additional, temporary appointments.
Any appointment to the circuit court requires senate confirmation. After we enact this, any judge confirmed to a district court could (eventually) find themselves on the court. Their confirmation thus includes the (remote) possibility that they will be elevated to the court. So any circuit court appointment after this goes into effect also serves as a SCOTUS confirmation.
When it comes time for the president to appoint a candidate to SCOTUS, anyone who has previously been confirmed to the line of succession can be immediately elevated to the court, without needing additional confirmation.
Where the president and Senate are sympatico, the president can choose anyone they want. When they are at odds, the president still has a list of pre-approved candidates the Senate can't block.
I think it would even be better to allow the president to appoint two new justices and the two most senior judges have to step down. It would make the turn over high enough that we don't end up with corrupt trash like we have now for decades. Not until death the way it is now.
What happens when three justices retire in one term, or the senior justice dies right before being forced out? Do we still force out two more justices? We obviously can't shrink the court each time, so either we don't force a justice out when we normally should, or we give the president an extra appointment. Neither seems like a good option.
Why not just rotate the judges out periodically from court below?
What I've described could (mostly) be enacted without a constitutional amendment. The basic idea of removing the fixed size and having the president appoint one candidate every two years iswell within Congress's authority to enact.
Some of the minutiae, such as the line of succession, or circuit court judges temporarily serving on the supreme court might not currently be constitutional.
I'm pretty sure a situation like that could be easily remedied. After all what would happen if three of them dropped dead right now. The president would nominate three new ones. As far as options go it sounds great. My suggestion would work better than any other solution out there and guarantee a slow but steady turn over in the court.
Ok, before I answer that question, I'm going to rewind a few years. It's 2019 again. Trump is in office. But this time, three justices have just died. I'm ignoring actual SCOTUS deaths and retirements, and just assuming the three hypothetical deaths/retirements, and any statutory appointment required by our systems. I'm doing this because I'm assuming if you are pissed about the state of the court today, you're probably pissed at the person primarily responsible for it's current makeup.
Under the status quo system, Trump gets to make three more appointments. There was no statutory appointment prior to this, so he only gets to appoint three justices. Trump has appointed 33% of the court.
Under your system, (as I understand it), the most senior justice in 2017 was forced out and replaced. In 2019, the next most senior justice was forced out and replaced. Now, if your system follows the same rules as the status quo system, Trump gets to make three more appointments to replace the dead justices. 5 of the 9 justices have been appointed by Trump, and the first of them isn't forced out until 10 years later. Trump has appointed 55.5% of the court.
Under the system I described, Trump appoints two candidates. The size of the court increases from 9 to 11. Trump has appointed 18% of the court. Then, three candidates die. The court falls to 8, but Trump doesn't get to fill any more seats. Trump's appointments now account for 25% of the court.
As I have demonstrated above, your solution does not "guarantee" slow turnover. In the scenario discussed, turnover was rapidly accelerated relative to the status quo. The president was able to completely install a brand new majority due to the effects of your forced retirement.
Consider another scenario: the court is 5/4 conservative/liberal in 2016, and two of the liberals are senior. Trump replaces them. The court is now 7/2. Now, the original 5 conservatives also retire. Under existing rules, Trump gets to replace them as well. The court is still 7/2, and the liberals are now senior.
Biden is elected in 2020. He gets to replace the two liberals. The court is still 7/2 conservative, but now the liberals are junior. Harris wins in 2024. She finally gets to replace a Trump appointee, but the court is still 5/4 conservative in 2028. The court doesn't shift back to liberal until 2030, and then only if Harris wins re-election in 2028.
As you have described it thus far, your system is far worse than what we have now in terms of "guaranteeing slow but steady" change.
My solution actually does achieve such change. The longer the justices stay on the court, the less power any one of them holds, as they continue to hold one vote among a growing cohort. At the same time, however, the president is regularly inserting new voters into that cohort.
You wrote all of that just to prove me right.
If that is what you managed to glean from it, I'm afraid your reading comprehension skills are sorely lacking.