92
Trump sparks outrage after calling for army to handle enemies on election day
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 14 Oct 2024
92 points (97.9% liked)
Neoliberal
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It makes plenty of sense when you realize I have been voting in elections for over 20 years and have never been polled. There are people who answer polls and people who don't. Poll workers go after people who are likely to answer. That's why polls are so skewed.
He got 46.8% of the vote in the last election. I don't think those polls are too incredibly far off do you?
Part of that had to do with low voter turnout. In 2016, the eligible voting population of the US was 230.93K. The total number of votes cast was only 136.75K. Of the votes cast only 62.98K were cast for Trump.
This is literally why every other post on social media is urging people to vote.
Edit: I'm gonna say one other thing. There's only 47% of registered voters who even bother with a party affiliation. The numbers for registered voters with party affiliation break down to be pretty close. But only 30 of the 50 states and territories allow voters to select a party affiliation.
" As of March 2024, 45 million registered voters in these areas identified themselves as Democrats. At 38.28%, Democrats represented the single largest share of registered voters in the states and territories that allow voters to indicate partisan affiliation on their registration forms.
A total of 35.7 million registered voters identified themselves as Republicans, representing 30.35% of registered voters in these areas. "
The last election was in 2020. Where Trump had over 74 million votes. The polling for that election predicted Trump would get 48% of the vote, which if you'll notice is within the margin of error of the 47% he actually got. I say again if you think 45% of the voting population pulling for Donald Trump in this next election is unrealistic I think you might be living in a Dreamworld. It's going to be close. These poles are not far off base. I'm not sure why you think there's so much less support for Trump than there really is.
I think you're reading things into what I said that you probably shouldn't be, and that's skewing how you read what I wrote. I am fully aware of how close polls are to how many votes he's likely to get. But overall what I'm pointing out is that he does not have half of the eligible voting population at his back. There's a significant number of registered voters who do not vote and therein lies the reason the polls are currently showing him as competitive with Harris. If more people vote that gap widens. I went with the numbers for the last time he won to illustrate the point of what happens when people don't vote in the election.
You'll note that I said specifically that this is why people are urging everyone who can vote to vote.
This is worded the way it is to illustrate to outsiders that it's not half the country supporting Trump because that's been a really big assumption I have seen repeatedly.