this post was submitted on 23 Oct 2024
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Now that I've pondered this a little bit more. I think the shocking thing won't be forks. There really are thousands of forks. But people will likely begin to coalesce around different upstreams in higher numbers than we've ever seen before.
What happens when we reach the point where it is practically impossible for companies like Yandex or Huawei to upstream patches? They are going to maintain their own trees, and those kernels will ship on millions of consumer devices.
hard and soft forks are both forks. tradeoff of effort vs. autonomy.
There's also the possibility of a complete rewrite. You can either keep the same syscall API and ABI or have your own with a translation layer for compatibility. I think OpenHarmony does something like this, having a base microkernel and compat layers for Linux and Android.
I suspect China is going to see this and dump a shitton of money into accelerating OpenHarmony or projects like it.
Oh shit will be 2025 be the year of the HURD desktop?
Russia is a big country and if Russian devs are generally unhappy with this, they could likely maintain a Linux fork. Especially if devs from other big countries in geopolitical tension with NATO, namely China, also coalesce around this fork.