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I have two hypothesis to what might have happened:
some more ideass:
I know you're just spitballing but putin wouldn't go through that much effort. I think he'd much rather just kill him for real. Prigozhin filmed the Africa video earlier, then returned to Russia for some reason, and released the video claiming to be in Africa as misdirection. Putin got some good intel on Prigozhin's plane and took the opportunity to shoot it down and stop the next rebellion before it starts
putin got him, 100%. both wagner and ru mod have reported that priggo is dead, and you don't just randomly fire a SAM at a civilian jet
look at what happened to any other nationalist critic of kremlin: tatarsky is dead, girkin is in prison, surovikin is under "house arrest", now prigozhin and utkin are also dead, and some others, like rybar, were told to toe the line or else and they complied
Unless you're Russia
this one was 100% intentional. these two other were also intentional, just misguided, it takes several steps to fire a SAM, it does not happen through an accident (bar missile defence, but there are few civilian planes with size of missile, travelling at the speed of missile)
There's a whole list of them:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airliner_shootdown_incidents
Source for it being a SAM?
early claim by wagner telegram channel, and also what makes the most sense since entire wing was blown off
could be something else, but options are limited
If it's #2, I wonder if he'll still be watching over his back for ice picks for the rest of his life.
If it's #2 he's absolutely going nowhere near a window on the fifth floor of any building.
I’m in the option 2 camp. While it is entirely possible that he really did die I’m skeptical and think this is some sort of plan of his. I don’t mean to sound conspiratorial but it’s so hard to believe anything reported by Russia
they already found his body, both ru authorities and wagner says that prigozhin and utkin are dead
They say they found his body. Can't trust the Kremlin or Wagner.
kremlin and wagner are on opposite sides there, and they say the same thing
putin wanted to show very publicly what happens to traitors, and he did. this is the simplest explanation here; maybe it's delayed response for mutiny, in which case the only unusual thing is why it happened so late. or maybe it's gerasimov's decision, or someone else's in high command, in which case it's more of an happy accident for putin
if it's what you say, wagner and kremlin or army cooperated for what reason exactly? so that prigozhin can command what is effectively russian colonies in africa, while not allowed ever to get into limelight? putin wanted control over this and over pmc, he tried to get there before, and now it'll be much easier
#3 Prigozhin was not on board, Wagner command knows, so no uprising, and Putin looks like he had him assassinated. Optics preserved
...
I might need some sleep
I can't help but wonder if that whole thing was Putin using Prigozhin to flush out traitors and tempt Ukraine to attack before they were ready.
Im gonna go with #2. Whole story sounds too easy and too convenient to be anything else.
Give it a few months and you will find this guy eating ice cream in Florida like that Brazilian President