this post was submitted on 01 Nov 2024
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Futurology
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My hope, and my belief, is that the switch to greener options has started and might not be easily stopped. EUs fit for 55 is a big deal and on the transportation side we see electrics making inroads in the market in a rather big way. Gas prices has plummeted and since production hasn't gone up, it's just demand side left.
On the construction side if things green heating options has diversified, come down in price and with local low temperature heat storage solutions might be even cheaper and less power hungry.
The only fly in the ointment is that we need to describe it as "increasing resilience", "cutting cost" and "decreasing dependency on over seas deliveries". As long as nobody mention "the inveronment" as the reason to do something.
Definitely for EU. No matter how much they love the US, they know that FF dependency is hurting them more than any one country dependency. While article says China emissions have gone up, they are likely to finish down for the year. As of summer, there is also a big drop in NG imports from China. China EV success is also reducing their oil imports/refining.
The backdrop for this is the delusion in US politics with right wing saying that we need to massively increase LNG export capacity even as their customers are rapidly reducing NG imports.