Lugh

joined 2 years ago
MODERATOR OF
 

People have been betting on independent reasoning as an emergent property of AI without much success so far. So it was exciting when OpenAI said their AI had scored at a Gold Medal level at the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO), a test of Math reasoning among the best of high school math students.

However, Australian mathematician Terence Tao says it may not be as impressive as it seems. In short, the test conditions were potentially far easier for the AI than the humans, and the AI was given way more time and resources to achieve the same results. On top of which, we don't know how many wrong results there were before OpenAI selected the best. Something else that doesn't happen with the human test.

There's another problem, too. Unlike with humans, AI being good at Math is not a good indicator for general reasoning skills. It's easy to copy techniques from the corpus of human knowledge it's been trained on, which gives the semblance of understanding. AI still doesn't seem good at transferring that reasoning to novel, unrelated problems.

 

By AI minus the "woke", they mean 'everything must agree with right-wing viewpoints' AI.

All autocratic regimes prefer citizens to live in a doctored version of reality, so I'm 100% unsurprised to see this pushed by the current US government.

It's ironic that the same US government wants global AI dominance. If this becomes law, most of the rest of the world will reject such AI in their own countries. It would be illegal in the EU.

Ironic that Chinese open-source AI is also doctored (trying to get it to talk about independent Taiwan, Tiananmen Square Massacre, etc) - yet for most of the rest of the world, it will be far superior to whatever 'right-wing only AI' this law will create. Guess which the world will choose, and will win the global AI dominance race?

Trump advisors are pushing a regulation targeting what they call "woke" AI models in the tech sector

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 3 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Or maybe AGI turns out to be harder than some people thought.

Yes. It seems very unlikely to arise from current LLMs. AGI-Hypers keep expecting signs of independent reasoning to arise, and it keeps not happening.

 

Capitalism is a long succession of booms and busts stretching back hundreds of years. We're now at the peak of another boom; that means a crash is inevitable. It's just a question of when. But there are other questions to ask too.

If many of the current AI players are destined to crash and burn, what does this mean for the type of AI we will end up with in the 2030s?

Is AGI destined to be created by an as-yet-unknown post-crash company?

Will open-source AI become the bedrock of global AI during the crash & post-crash period?

Crashes mean recessions, which means cost-cutting. Is this when AI will make a big impact on employment?

AI Bubble Warns: Sløk Raises Concerns Over Market Valuations

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 2 points 2 days ago

The Germans have been doing it for a while too, but they seemed to have got more results and be closer to launch.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 9 points 2 days ago (1 children)

The US is also heading for a debt crisis. I wonder when the stock market crash comes, will Trump's attempts to 'fix' it be what finally ends the dollar's day as world reserve currency?

 

Europe has a long history of fragmented space efforts. France is the leading European nation for space tech and coordinates many of its efforts with ESA. So do other countries, but there are also 13 separate national space agencies. Will this fragmentation help or hinder spaceplane efforts? Maybe having three teams trying different approaches means exploring more options.

Spaceplane 1 - POLARIS Raumflugzeuge is developing one for the German Armed Forces Procurement Office (BAAINBw)

Spaceplane 2 - VORTEX, a French reusable mini-space shuttle that will launch on rockets.

Spaceplane 3 - Britain/ESA - INVICTUS - A reusable spaceplane for LEO using the tech previously worked on by Reaction Engines/Sabre.

Out of these three, the German effort seems most advanced. It has already successfully tested elements of its technology, and it aims for a launch date (2027) far nearer than the others.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 5 points 3 days ago (1 children)

The purpose of the trial was to avoid diseases caused by faulty DNA transmitted via the mitochondria. Mitochondrial DNA is only 13 genes out of 20,000, and is transmitted separately, but in some cases can cause disease. The third person here was a woman who donated her healthy mitochondria & its DNA to a nucleus where the existing male/female nucleus was damaged.

Will swapping out some of the 20,000 core nucleus genes be a future development? Perhaps, but maybe it will make more sense to have them gene edited, and not get transplants from extra people.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 14 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Although gene editing techniques are patentable in some countries, I wonder if this could be much cheaper than the monthly weight loss shots, which can be very expensive in some countries.

In the future will medical tourism for gene editing be a thing? Maybe the same clinics that offer hair restoration, botox and plastic surgery today will have it as an option.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 4 points 4 days ago

Submission Statement

"We wanted to test the entire planning process including approval, construction, and real-world operation of the plant to learn how to draw up concepts for building larger production platforms," said Professor Roland Dittmeyer, Head of KIT's Institute for Micro Process Engineering and coordinator of the "PtX-Wind" H2Mare project during the opening ceremony in Bremerhaven."

Interesting this isn't just a technical proof-of-concept, but they are looking at the practicalities of commercializing it too.

 

"We will do one of two things: we will reform the way the IEA operates or we will withdraw,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said during an interview Tuesday. “My strong preference is to reform it. ………….. The agency has predicted that global oil demand will plateau this decade as electric-vehicle fleets expand and other measures are adopted to reduce emissions and combat climate change. “That’s just total nonsense,” Wright said"

The US provides about 18% of the IEA funding, so that would be missed. On the other hand, what choice does the IEA have but to say goodbye? Otherwise it's just spreading deliberate lies and misinformation for the fossil fuel industry. What use is it then to the rest of the world?

The irony here is that IEA has a long history of under-estimating the transition to renewables. As far back as twenty years, every single year solar & wind energy adoption has far outpaced its projections.

Going by its past record, its already being too conservative in its future projections, and change will happen far quicker than it says.

US Threatens to Abandon IEA Over Green-Leaning Energy Forecasts

 

"employing 1,000 robots at its plant.……..operated at full capacity in two-shift rotations since June 2024. One thousand people work each shift."

Humans plateau in their capabilities, robots don't. The AI that gives them their abilities gets inexorably better and better.

Car manufacturing employs 3 million people in the EU, and 1 million in the US. Xiaomi’s car factory can't make it any clearer what the future is going to be - soon most of this work can be done by robots.

When will our public discourse reflect this? Most politicians talk as if none of this is happening.

China's Xiaomi takes on Tesla, armed with 1,000 EV factory robots

[–] Lugh@futurology.today -1 points 1 week ago (2 children)

It seems logical they would test it on extracted gall bladders first. Finding a gall bladder during surgery seems far from an insurmountable task for AI.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today -1 points 1 week ago (3 children)

"our" democratically elected leaders

You know the internet isn't just made up of Americans, right? (E.g. I'm Irish & the other 2 mods of this site are Indian & English.)

Why not try and see developments from a global perspective?

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 3 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

People overestimate how much an aging population will be a burden in decades to come, because they underestimate the impact of robots.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 1 points 1 month ago

At least they're being honest about it.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 2 points 1 month ago

A Swiss company is trying this, though using concrete instead of water. Wear and tear and moving parts are disadvantages though.

https://www.swiss.tech/news/giant-gravity-batteries-storage-renewable-energies

view more: next ›