The argument for current LLM AIs leading to AGI has always been that they would spontaneously develop independent reasoning, through an unknown emergent property that would appear as they scale. It hasn't happened, and there's no sign that it will.
That's a dilemma for the big AI companies. They are burning through billions of dollars every month, and will need further hundreds of billions to scale further - but for what in return?
Current LLMs can still do a lot. They've provided Level 4 self-driving, and seem to be leading to general-purpose robots capable of much useful work. But the headwinds look ominous for the global economy, - tit-for-tat protectionist trade wars, inflation, and a global oil shock due to war with Iran all loom on the horizon for 2025.
If current AI players are about to get wrecked, I doubt it's the end for AI development. Perhaps it will switch to the areas that can actually make money - like Level 4 vehicles and robotics.
I mean, yeah, this is about people outside the industry, those who invested money.
To my knowledge, LLMs still don't pay for themselves. When the hype dies down and investors aren't willing to provide money anymore, then prices for LLMs will become prohibitive for many current use-cases. That will also shrink the industry.
What that means in effect, we'll still have to see, but AGI was one path that investors hoped for to get towards profitability, so it doesn't aid the hype when they're slowly learning about reality.
I'm developing some human centric LLM frameworks at work. Every API request to OpenAI is currently subsidized by venture capital. I do worry about what the industry will look like once there is a big price adjustment. Locally run models are pretty decent now and the pace is still moving forward, especially with regards to context window sizes so as long as I keep the frameworks model agnostic it might not be a big impact.
Yep, based off public numbers regarding OpenAI finances, it was estimated that as of a few months ago they spent $2.35 for every $1 they made.