this post was submitted on 26 Nov 2024
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we've seen what lengths americans would go through to enable a clueless entitled white man to win over an intelligent and accomplished minority woman; shienbaum's personality is going to clash badly with trumps and i hope that there are enough intermediaries between them to stop the worst of it from happening.
I expect Mexico will likely just turn towards BRICS if US throws up a hissy fit
I could see that, and would be all for it. At least partnership status, if not a full member.
I recall reading there was some talk about precisely that.
it's more likely that they'll instigate another regime change in mexico should any administration ever suggest moving away from the dollar.
Regime change schemes only work when they're able to destabilize the economy first. That's precisely what BRICS prevents from happening.
Exactly, by allowing trade of most commodities in non dollar denominated assets, it prevents the US from seizing control of a given country's trade. The world put up with sanctions for decades but the USA freezing dollar denominated treasury securities of Russia and Iran absolutely shot themselves in the foot. It showed the world that Washington has lost any remaining semblance of the plot they still had (as little as it was) and that they absolutely need to get away from us as fast as possible.
Additionally, IMF debt traps are increasingly making austerity common in places where people's entire lives happen at a cost of less than the average meal in the imperial core. China's BRI moves have opened actually fair trade for a bunch of countries that were being crushed by world bank. The rest of world is taking notes, hegemonic control in Washington is breaking apart and being washed away. Soon, the dam will fail and wash away, taking all of the resources Americans need with it.
If Washington was smart, they'd start working on actually shoring up American manufacturing capacity, but we know they're not going to do that, they're going to try and use CIA tactics, which may or may not work to various degrees, and then look confused AF when they're being [redacted] later.
(sorry, got a bit off topic at the end, adhd hit hard all of a sudden but I think it mostly follows a logical path through those thoughts so I'll leave it)
The war in Ukraine will absolutely be taught in history books as the catalyst for the fall of the western empire.
I only hope I live to see the day where I can read that book.
Yeah, hope we'll make it through the next couple of months without Biden starting a nuclear holocaust.
Honestly, considering the warhawks already announced for the Trump cabinet, even Biden leaving isn't a guarantee the government doesn't press that button anytime soon.
I do think Trump will wind down Ukraine, but we'll probably see an escalation with China instead. Most of the hawks he picked are China hawks.
Yeah, that's a fair point. History is definitely happening a lot lately, someone should probably tell Fukuyama about it.
that's how it works with normal regime changes; but the americans were able to push the pri out despite a relatively decent economy and they have the ability to do it again with something like the cartels.
We'll see how it goes, but I don't think the US today has the power to accomplish such feats.
It takes an almost a trivial effort for the Americans to destabilize Mexico. All they need to do is train another zetas like group again with the schools that already exist and training that they've perfected over the decades and you have another generation of guaranteed violence and social upheaval that will leave the populace willing to accept peace at the barrel of an American gun; again
Again, track record hasn't been so good for US destabilizing nations in the past decade. I think you're vastly overestimating the capabilities the empire has at the present moment. In any case, we will see. I don't see any point arguing further about this. Either it will happen or not. I don't think it's in the cards.
That is one of the most generous descriptions I have ever heard of her, unless you mean accomplished in war crimes. People going to bat for either side of the US Party are missing the point.
What evidence exists for sheinbaum's war crimes?
As USians did not elect Trump (presumably the clueless entitled white man) over Sheinbaum, the reasonable assumption here is that the "intelligent and accomplished minority woman" you were referencing was Harris, no? Sheinbaum wasn't running against an entitled white man.
no
sheinbaum is a minority in mexico and well is accomplished & intelligent. i was using trump's experience with kamala to draw a parallel to how i believe both sheinbaum & trump will work with each other; anything that sheinbaum rightfully sticks to is automatically going to be a losing issue with her and it will cost her political legacy in mexico as well as justifying trump's actions towards mexico in american's eyes, trump will win all his altercations with her as a result.
Right, but in drawing this parallel to describe Sheinbaum, you have also implied Kamala possesses those same qualities in the parallel.
Kamala's only relatively flawless compared to trump and that's an extremely low bar (eg Gaza genocide) whereas shienbaum is truly flawless compared to anyone.
lol dont be disingenous, you clearly worded it referring to kamala.
i was using kamala & trumps debate as an example of what sheinbaum's relationship is going to look like.
No offense (offense) but lmao
Also, for all his infinite issues (and the fact both are undeniably terrible, bigoted, and genocidal people no decent person should ever support) Trump is if nothing else more ""intelligent"" and even- ergh- ""accomplished"" than Kopmala (the bar is in hell for both of them). What exactly has Kopmala done to her name other than terrorize poor people and minorities? And don't tell me that she got her role for her accomplishments or whatever (POC and a woman myself and let's not kid ourselves here lol) or that she did anything in her role (not that Biden did either, probably).
i was referring to sheinbaum.
Fair enough, admittedly your comment wasn't assumed to be referring to Sheinbaum by anyone FWIW (the wording made it sound more like Trump v. Kamala)
Yes, I can see that now and I'm wondering how anyone could think of a genocide enabling diet republican as intelligent or accomplished or that anyone besides Americans have minority women
TBF, this is exactly how most Democrats/libs in the west constantly describe Kamala (and Trump). Meanwhile Trump hasn't even faced off with Sheinbaum yet AFAIK
she threw people in jail, she is accomplished!
an observably incompetant and ontologically evil genocide enabling war crime supporting proud-of-all-those-families-she-tore-apart-as-a-prosecuter ass piece of shit, you mean
She is no hero and no role model, she is a detestable criminal who, with the help of the criminally complicit democratic party failed the american people, not the other way around. people who voted for Kamala for any reason other than ignorance sicken me, this is a dead empire, what is done now will not cause any reduction in harm in the end, all you do is make yourself willfully complicit in the crimes of this guilty land.
agreed; but i was referring to sheinbaum.
For what it is worth I was able to gather that you meant Sheinbaum and but Harris
I messed up on drawing the parallel with trump and it derailed the point that I was trying to make; but thanks for getting it anyways
I know you don't mean Harris, but I don't know why anyone's going to bat for the head of a settler state who isn't even a SocDem. Yeah she believes in climate change, but like... she's a mestizo operating an incredibly violent settler state that's very complicit in US imperialism. It's not disimilar than advocating for Harris because she doesn't revel as much in xenophobic rhetoric
she's a step in the right direction and not the ultimate answer. she's also a lightening rod since her demographic tends to vote conservative; but she's much more progressive than any democrat we currently have that can be president.
like americans, mexicans are in their own pivotal moment in history and the hegemonic forces that keep mexico in its violent settler state condition is waning as much in mexico as american imperial designs are waning in the the united states and the world; since they both rely on the same source of power. don't get me wrong; those hegemonic powers are still very strong the closer to the american imperial core you get and mexico is close enough to be stuck in that orbit for a long time without help from anyone else; as they've always done.
mexican settler colonialism would have died long ago where it not for the american hegemony propping it up on life-support and, once that's gone; mexicans' indigenous identities will be free to re-assert themselves instead of perpetually boiling near the surface and then beaten back again as it has been for generations and; if the mexican state survives it; it will come out as a very different country that the one we have now.
I do worry however, I'm not sure if she can really be considered qualitatively more progressive in any actionable way. Mexico's anti-US imperialism has always run hallow ala Turkey and Sheinbaum is still collaborating with the US on the border and aiding deportation while killing indigenous protesters at home and continuing the long tradition of Mexican appropriation of indigenous culture etc. etc.
I also worry due to the unique aspects of mexican settlerism, particularly the strength of indiginismo and that settler move to innocence present among mestizos that in the event of the inevitable US downfall there may be a continued Mexican settler nationalism, possibly even a strengthened one under a project like Atzlan or just reclamation of "occupied Mexican territory". I can't imagine it would be a long lived project past the lifespan of US imperialism but Mexico's unique history of settler-colonialism tells me that it's more than the US keeping the indigenous and black populations of the area oppressed and hyper exploited and would take further dismantling
there's little she can qualitatively do at this stage; but she's taken quantitative steps that prove her intentions in weakening the american empire's iron grip in examples like making judges answerable to public vote and re-nationalizing pemex. to be clear: she's going to make mistakes like amlo did with the new police force; but she's trying to affect change in a system that is completely captured (aka the same thing that the moderates keep insisting is possible to do within the american system).
there will always be a settler background to any country in the americas because it's now our heritage; it will never fully go away and it's up to us to keep our mental gardens de-weeded of such thoughts and she must play ball with the americans on immigration lest she be regime-changed for someone else like what happened with pena neito. (you have to accept the reality of the american's empires actions are causing an immigration crisis and you also have to accept your country's livelihood is attached to same empire -- for now at least).
like turkey and the republicans; the mexican settler classes recognize the bad optics that american support carries with it and have successfully co-opted pushes to excise american influence throughout the country to help launder public their image, which always ultimately leads to an increase in the manufactured cultural rift between mexicans and mexican-americans; this settler consciousness too will be our heritage going forward and we must always likewise be on guard for it as well; like liberal americans try to do today.
finally: that marginalization and suppression of the indigenous protesters is exactly what i was referring to when i mentioned competing mexican identities are perpetually boiling to the surface only to be beaten back down again. the mexican's state's federal core in mexico city is constantly at odds with the people it want's to claim ownership over so they beat it back as hard as they can whenever they can (eg the yaqui or tarahumara or zapotec or mixtec or etc.) and pretend it doesn't exist whenever they can't (eg zapatistas); they would be ineffectual without american support as they were in the past before the americans starting making it a habit to intervene on their behalf.
It's hard to have hope that she really wants to dismantle these structures of oppression. I can understand she expresses Mexico's need for a nationalism away from the dying US state, and I can even believe she wants a Mexico free of US imperialism, but even if settlers will always be a part of the area's history the solution is going to be in a reassertion of native sovereignty and active decolonization thus eliminating settlers through the removal of their exploitative relationship with the land and its people. The reform she does is in the interest of maintaining the Mexican state which I believe is adverse to these goals and the "mistakes" of police violence are not mere accidents but in the intended design.
I do agree with your assessment that it's a show that US imperialism is fading and that without it Mexico will be more able to progress beyond its settler colonial past and present. But Sheinbaum's collaboration with the US isn't one of using the time to build an alternative non-exploitative economic base (socialism) and building up material strength of the oppressed nationalities within Mexico as China does, but rather one of kinship, shared history and goals towards oppressing the natives as to maintain the settler state.
we agree on this part. in the same way that i don't expect a republican to understand the of civil rights movements within the united states; i don't expect a mexican who has lived their entire life in the federal district to have an understanding of mexico outside of mexico city's borders. views like hers have a stronghold in mexico city; but in hermosillo and chiapas alike those views are controversial at best.
i meant it when i said that she was a step in the right direction; but not the ultimate answer. the federalist mexicans are the biggest and most well financed cohesive group that can buck american imperialism right now in mexico and that strength can open the doorway to change; but there's no guarantee of what the change can look like. she's a stepping stone and she, like amlo, know that.
that is one way that mexico can change and; if mexico's ruling classes behave the same way americans' classes currently are; this is the most likely path forward if you're on the outside looking in; but i think mexico is just as likely to setup a spanish style democracy with self-governing regions; but more devolved than spain's.
the people in those examples i shared earlier (of the larger indigenous groups rebelling against mexican control) identify as mexicans now like it's another one of their identities. that plus the rancheria based cultural revolution from the late 20th century helps to solidify that identity; they want to be mexican just as much as anyone from mexico city wants to be mexican. i think that this mutual desire to be mexican will help ensure that mexico survives in the future in a recognizable form and i think it'll be in a form that more realistically & practically harmonizes its indigenous roots and it's recent colonial past. (or at least more so that the popular "fakeness" that they do now).
I'm coming in from the sidelines here, but do you have any resources you'd recommend to better understand Mexican soceity and political struggles? As a US Californian Marxists I want to have a more well rounded understanding of the conditions just south of us and improve my own analysis.
Apologies if this is out of left field.
i get my information from enduring relationships that i've cultivated over the decades due to our matching existence at the intersection of our identities (eg lbgt, indigenous, neuro-divergent, immigrant, leftists, etc.)
in your shoes; i would either watch more telemundo or univision with the assumption that it's as much propaganda as it is news too and reach out to your mexican-american friends that are well connected enough to mexico to have a opinion on current events. if those opinions are the same as the ones on telemundo, then ask someone else; luckily, you're in california so there are plenty and they're also americans so they can understand your perspective since it's closer their own than a mexican's.
literary works translated into english can help too; but ime it's usually about a decade behind the times and it's always from a mexican federalist pov; so you'll only get the feeling of the political zeitgeist in mexico city from ten years ago if you go with literary translations and it'll be up to you to fill in the missing context and up to date information.
Thank you very much