this post was submitted on 17 Dec 2024
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As much as we’d like China to be principled like the USSR, they aren’t. At least not yet, the PRC continues to pursue a realpolitik strategy as they feel they can position themselves as necessary for the West. They are arming themselves quickly but are not yet in a position to face the US militarily. China has learned from the “mistakes” made from socialism’s first experiments. The weakness of capitalism is that it cannot go to war with a nation so crucial to its economy. Even if the war hawks want war with China, even a proper full blown Cold War, the business elites will intervene. China has realized with Climate Change that the business elites that control the nation will feed in the through of profits even at the risk of their own annihilation.
This means China can avoid an unfair advantage that capitalists broadly and the US specifically had at expanding Empire, that war is profitable to capitalist nations therefore the expansion of military goals served a dual purpose. However socialist nations have no use for war after they industrialize, it’s just a waste of labor and resources that could go elsewhere. As long as China maintains the balancing act where the US begrudgingly has to keep China as an ally of sorts, then China can have time needed to become richer and stronger. The USSR for example had to become stronger while poor in its infancy, it was able to still get ahead from the early days of the Union, but who knows how much wealthier they could’ve been if they weren’t bogged so much down in war?
The US is looking at India, Vietnam or Brazil or whatever for possible ways to allow the US to decouple from the PRC, but they know that even in the best case scenarios that would take decades as China quite literally sells the US rope to hang themselves. China set up a master plan and the US fell for it with Deng and the following leaders as the US was licking its lips hoping to see China become a capitalist nation and fed it its manufacturing out of greed and allowed China to grow its high-tech modernity and Global competitiveness as the US knows its growing China’s productive forces but can’t stop it.
China needs to hold this pattern, whether we’d like to see them reacting a different way, if it hinders the larger plan, it would be all for naught. The US is in a very precarious position, even small in dips in quality of life enrages a population that has little actual patriotism, asking the population to engage in an “arduous march” to cut off China right now is laughable. So they’re stuck.