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Damn I'm misinformed I really thought it was weakening.
It isn't weakening, but just get out a sharpie and change the path. Everyone saved!
I only have a marks-a-lot can I substitute that or do I need a divine sharpie?
That depends. Are you president of the United States?
I hear nuking hurricanes can help too.
It never hit cat 4. It was a lower cat 3. It was traveling quite fast and didn’t have a chance to do any eye wall replacements before landfall. So it actually weakened a bit (the first part of the replacement cycle) when it hit landfall.
Keaton, Perry and Valdosta are probably gonna get fucked up. Unfortunately Perry is quite rural. Theres not a lot of money there, lots of folks in trailers and substandard housing and thus, its more dangerous.
But this wasn’t a “Michael” event. It does seem the NHS took a different tact this year on their predictions and warnings. Not of the major intensity models had it hitting a 4 (hwrf, hmon, etc). But they were saying it anyway. Had some folks panicking quite a bit in my area.
They were right in that a major hadn’t hit Appalachee bay, but that’s because Mexico beach and cape san blas are like, 10 minutes west of that demarcation point.
It did weaken to Category 3 before it made landfall
It never hit a 4. Wasn’t really predicted to either by any of the models. It was moving too fast to really intensify. The NhC did take a bit of a different tact and so did a lot of the TV forecasters and for those of us that tend to monitor the data on places like tropical tidbits and from NWS it seemed like a juxtaposition. It had a lot of folks in a bit of a panic over n my area.
Here’s intensity tracking and modeling from 00z to 06z to 12z today. The 0 point is actual intensity and those are usually bumped up just a bit from recon sounding data. And that tracked as well they tend to err on the side of higher values over median or mean
Here’s 18z yesterday.
Hey, I can't read any of this and don't understand it. I'm just repeating what can be found all over about the hurricane, that it had intensified to a Cat 4 hours before landfall, but had gone back to a category 3 before as well. Sorry if I was wrong to say what everyone is reporting.
Yeah I get it. Everytime there’s a us landfall storm a LOT of misreporting occurs. Just trying to put accurate information out there.
The different between a 3 (where trees can fall and damage can happen) and a 4-5 (where houses will be leveled) can be quite extreme.
In the past the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center always stayed more conservative to calm folks.
The last few years though, it seems like the media equivalent of doomscrolling with exaggerated reports and lots of wild predictions. Especially after Michael.
For example my local center said the same with something like this which is technical true but only because Hurricane Michael was like…4 miles east of that left hand point where that little island/peninsula juts out.
It’s definitely caused a lot of panic and put more people on the roads late last night, which was less safe. My wife was even trying similar.
So Im gonna come back here and say sorry. I went and looked back at the news and they stated that NHC did in fact classify it as Cat4 for a brief time (doesnt seem based on data, but speculation that it would intensify...)