AMUSING, INTERESTING, OUTRAGEOUS, or PROFOUND

Just going to repost some translated analytics here. To add another angle

Trump cannot exert economic pressure on Ukraine, and halting military supplies does not have an immediate effect. However, in my opinion, his most significant leverage is political. This factor could play a key role in forcing Ukraine into a peace agreement.

It’s important for understanding the context of why the U.S. needs this. For those who don’t want to read the full post, I’ll briefly summarize: The U.S. needs to contain China, which means preventing a China-Russia alliance. However, the U.S. lacks the financial resources, and due to this, Trump wants to scale back historical support for Europe.

Trump's declared foreign policy goals extend far beyond Ukraine. His aim is to restructure the entire global order and dismantle the foundational principles established during the Yalta Conference, which are now completely outdated.

Accordingly, a warming of U.S.-Russia relations is a completely natural and logical process from the standpoint of U.S. interests. And this should happen independently of Ukraine. However, as long as the war continues, Trump wants to link these processes together—essentially trading concessions and a war freeze in exchange for lifting sanctions and resetting relations. But this is not a strict prerequisite.

This is directly evident from Trump's rhetoric—he does not tie improved relations to specific actions from Russia, such as admitting guilt or paying reparations. On the contrary, Reuters has already reported that Trump has instructed the State Department and the Treasury to prepare a list of sanctions that could be lifted soon. While this likely won’t involve anything major at first, certain individuals could see sanctions removed. However, this in itself is an important signal: Ukraine is being separated from U.S.-Russia relations. For now, Trump does not want to make concessions in advance while negotiations are ongoing.

Yet, if the deal collapses due to Ukraine, then U.S.-Russia relations will develop without considering Ukraine at all, solely based on American interests. It seems that this mechanism was already set in motion after a White House dispute—CNN reports that preparations for a Putin-Trump meeting have been accelerated. Additionally, a second round of talks in Saudi Arabia is expected soon, where the focus is likely to be more on U.S.-Russia economic cooperation rather than Ukraine.

Any real steps in this direction will effectively lead to the EU lifting its own sanctions. Even now, secondary sanctions are more problematic than the primary ones. Countries like Turkey were willing to bypass restrictions, but Biden tightened the screws. Trump, however, doesn't even need to formally lift sanctions—he can just turn a blind eye to violations by third countries.

At the same time, if the U.S. officially lifts sanctions, Europe will have little choice but to follow suit. Many companies left the Russian market voluntarily, as a gesture of goodwill, without being legally required to do so. As a result, they could begin returning once their governments give a quiet green light—publicly condemning the move, but privately claiming they can't interfere because private companies are free to act in a democracy and capitalist system.

Right now, the only hope for hawks in Ukraine and the EU is to prolong the war, expecting that Russia will collapse under economic pressure, forcing Putin to negotiate from a position of weakness. However, if sanctions are lifted, this already uncertain scenario will become highly unlikely, making further war pointless for Ukraine. This would force Kyiv to either accept a far worse peace deal than what’s currently on the table or continue fighting alone, without any realistic hope of achieving what could be called a victory.