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How prediction markets create harmful outcomes: a case study (bobjacobs.substack.com)

submitted 3 days ago by Collectivist@awful.systems to c/techtakes@awful.systems

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[–] Collectivist@awful.systems 6 points 3 days ago (2 children)

people without disposable income are now excluded

The article does say/link:

I’ve previously talked about how it may not always be ethical to require people to bet on their beliefs, and talked about how the interests of rich people could bias certain prediction markets

As for

The bullshit artist prevention also doesnt work

In the footnote it does say:

This doesn’t work for very longterm bets, and it also wouldn’t convince everyone, since conspiracy theorists still exist. Still, I expect it to be helpful on average.

Although there's likely still an overestimation of how much it would help

[–] YourNetworkIsHaunted@awful.systems 16 points 3 days ago (2 children)

I started reading the post about wealth bias and was immediately distracted by the fact that they're trying to call a government based on prediction markets a "futarchy" which speaks to these people being entirely the wrong kind of terminally online.

[–] bitofhope@awful.systems 15 points 2 days ago

Hell yeah rule by dickgirls

[–] nev@bananachips.club 3 points 2 days ago (1 children)

@YourNetworkIsHaunted @Collectivist Oh no. Oh noooooooo

[–] floppyplopper@todon.nl 2 points 14 hours ago (1 children)

@nev @YourNetworkIsHaunted @Collectivist
here's someone who doesn't want to be ruled by the futureari

[–] nev@bananachips.club 2 points 13 hours ago

@floppyplopper @YourNetworkIsHaunted @Collectivist i welcome our new rationalist gambler dickgirl overlords

[–] Soyweiser@awful.systems 5 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

I saw those but I think it totally removes the pros, also my second complaint is that conmen would simply not join, and this will not expose them as frauds and they cant be made to join as forced betting on yourself is a crazy idea. (Also increases upfront costs for everyone more).

It is all very much wargames.