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How prediction markets create harmful outcomes: a case study (bobjacobs.substack.com)

submitted 2 days ago by Collectivist@awful.systems to c/techtakes@awful.systems

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[–] Soyweiser@awful.systems 9 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (5 children)

Lol love how the good analysis just misses that people without disposable income are now excluded, it puts a price on participating in the public discourse.

The bullshit artist prevention also doesnt work, as we have a bullshit artist as the richest person in the world despite use being able to show all the bullshit he was wrong about but he still gets all the money. Despite there being no fsd, mars colony, covid over by april. Why would he bet on his takes that even now with all his exposed lies people still treat him like a nerdboy genius?

[–] Collectivist@awful.systems 6 points 2 days ago (4 children)

people without disposable income are now excluded

The article does say/link:

I’ve previously talked about how it may not always be ethical to require people to bet on their beliefs, and talked about how the interests of rich people could bias certain prediction markets

As for

The bullshit artist prevention also doesnt work

In the footnote it does say:

This doesn’t work for very longterm bets, and it also wouldn’t convince everyone, since conspiracy theorists still exist. Still, I expect it to be helpful on average.

Although there's likely still an overestimation of how much it would help

[–] YourNetworkIsHaunted@awful.systems 15 points 2 days ago (2 children)

I started reading the post about wealth bias and was immediately distracted by the fact that they're trying to call a government based on prediction markets a "futarchy" which speaks to these people being entirely the wrong kind of terminally online.

[–] bitofhope@awful.systems 15 points 2 days ago

Hell yeah rule by dickgirls

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