this post was submitted on 04 May 2025
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This article made a prediction that turned out to be wrong.
In the time since the headline in July 2020, the number of jobs in the U.S. rose back from 139 million to 159 million. (In January 2020, before COVID hit, there were 152 million jobs).
Average weekly earnings went up from $1016 to $1236, a 21.6% increase. That's come up short on the 23.4% inflation in that time period. But also, this number didn't drop for COVID, so these wages are higher than in 2019.
People can complain about how the economy isn't working for regular people, but the last 5 years were actually a pretty good run for wage earners.
Generally averages, in my opinion, are not a good measure.
Here is the median:
Employed full time: Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
Edit: Maybe this is even better:
Real Median Personal Income in the United States (MEPAINUSA672N) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N
All of these stats matter, because it shows multiple facets of a complex economic system.
Bottom quartile earnings are here.
I don't like using personal income as a metric that represents what's happening to regular people because it's noisy data that incorporates retirement income and investment income in the numerator, and includes in the denominator non-earners (including the idle rich, retired people, full time students).
But as part of a broader look at multiple metrics, it should be considered.
Others include the different categories of unemployment (including the underemployed, the weekly hours worked, marginally detached), read with other employment indicators like layoffs and volunary quits, job openings posted, people making unemployment claims for the first time, etc.