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You're discounting the funding, training, supplies, dispatched agents, diplomatic maneuvering etc. that the CPC and KMT had received through out the history of the communist movement in China from the USSR. The CPC without the USSR at their back would've been most likely would have been significantly hamstrung to the point I doubt they would have enough cohesion to survive past 1925. The KMT without the USSR would've been most likely smothered by one of the southern warlords and would not have been, for the short time it was, united with the CPC and grow and nurture each other until the death of Sun Yat-sen. China would have been easy prey for the Japanese imperialists to pluck apart in such a manner that would make the British subjugation of India pale in comparison to the barbarity that would've been emplaced on the Chinese people.

The Chinese revolution succeeded because of the blood they had shed, but without the Soviets to help nurture the spark that was born of the May 4th movement there would most likely not been such a revolution in the first place.