this post was submitted on 09 Jun 2025
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They are essentially a fun toy for most people, and an ok tool for people with the patience and training to get useful output from them. And they cost an insane amount of money to train and an insane amount of power to run.
Not to mention the other cost of training them, the human emotional cost. And the human cost of running them.
It just costs so much of a variety of things, for an output that has barely made anything better. Maybe they might get "better" in the future, and have to get through this stage to get there, but I've also seen a lot of people saying they appear to be starting to plateau... maybe a temporary plateau, but if so, how temporary? Could we just drop it for 10 years and start back up when they won't be as inefficient? Maybe a law that they have to pay for everything they feed it, would effectively cause them to only emerge at a time when they are actually feasible.
People who track performance (like METR, a nonprofit) indicate that progress is, if anything, speeding up. Most people's use case is so simple they can't detect the difference. However for cases like complex problem solving, agentic tasks, etc you can in fact see significant progress happening. This should be concerning if you think the world isn't ready for labor displaced by LLMs.