thanks for the input on the last post, next time i'll make an actually interpretable one in like a year or something, or next time reddit fucks up
this post was submitted on 25 Sep 2023
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im genuinely hopeless at maths so i couldnt answer that unfortunately
but if your reading this and you aren't, please tell us https://strawpoll.com/1MnwOW2G5n7/results
I don't think it's possible to answer that with this data actually
You'd need an excel spreadsheet with all responses if this was multi-choice and strawpoll saves responses like that.
True, you would need a page with the listed results sorted by participant. Quite easy to calculate if you have that tho.
It kinda is. 341 identify as straight. 525 identify as cis. 341/525 = ~65% of respondents who identify as cis are both cis and straight. Out of all those who responded, approximately 18.5% of respondents are both cis AND straight.
We don't have the fine detail, but this is enough for a rough estimate.
Edit: is everyone happy now?
You can't do it this way. It would work if we would know that everyone who is straight also identifies as being cis, but that's obviously not the case.
Also the way you calculated it would be 65% of people who identify as straight under the condition that a person is straight. Not 65% of respondents.
But again, that's assuming that everyone who is straight is cis.
That's all this is...a rough estimate. If we knew more details, we could refine that estimate. But then things get muddy when you consider what a "straight" relationship means to a cis person when only one person in the relationship is cis. So it comes down to what you want. Do you want a rough idea of the ratio, or do you want to get bogged down in the details and debate about what should be included?
But what you calculated isn't even possible. You calculated that more people are cis and straight than there are cis people. That alone is enough to disprove you.
I edited my comment to extrapolate the data and make it more clear...
Sorry, but WTF is this math. Cis people, regardless of sexual orientation, are less than 65% of respondents. Straight people, regardless of gender identity, are also less than 65%. How come people who are both at the same time would be more? You are saying that e.g. cis straight people are more than straight people in total.
What your math gives is what share of cis people are straight, if we assume that all straight people are cis.
Why wouldn't that be a reasonable assumption? If you identify as non-cis, then you likely identity as non-straight. Which would mean that if you identify as straight, you likely identify as cis. There might be some outliers of non-cis people that identify as straight, but they are statistically insignificant.
Otherwise, I've edited my comment for clarity, since people seemed to be having trouble extrapolating the conclusion.
The keyword is likely. I agree that there is some correlation, but we can't know for sure how strong the connection is unless we are given the numbers, and their lack is the reason for this math in the first place. If we assume that all straight people are cis (which I doubt), then we need not do any math - the number of straight cis people is the number of straight people. If we assume no correlation at all (which I also doubt), then we get a more reasonable number. If we assume some correlation, then we just get a similar number, but the math gets a lot messier.
there is a lot wrong with that math
Then please...enlighten me.
Other people have already said a lot, but I'll fill in some more of the calculations. So, according to the poll, we only know that
P(Cis) = 0.28
and
P(Straight) = 0.19
Now, what we are looking after is P(Cis ∧ Straight). Since we don't know if cis people on this sub are more or less likely to be straight, there's no way to calculate this without making assumptions, but generally in statistics for a rough estimate we can assume statistical independence. In that case we get
P(Cis ∧ Straight) = P(Cis) * P(Straight) = 0.28 * 0.19 = 0.06
which would mean about 6% of people are cis and straight. That is probably underestimating it, because it is pretty likely that cis people are more likely to be straight, but from this data, there is no way to know.
Now, to what you calculated: instead of writing it in absolutes, you can rewrite it in probabilities:
P(Straight) / P(Cis)
In and of itself this gives us no information. But again, if we assume this time that all straight people are cis, which is a steeper assumption, we get the conditional probability:
P(Straight) / P(Cis) = P(Cis ∧ Straight) / P(Cis) = P(Straight | Cis) = 0.65
This gives us that assuming all straight people are cis, if you meet someone who is cis, there's a 65% chance they are also straight. Which is interesting, but not what we're looking for
wow, that turned out a bunch of nerd shit, what I actually meant to say was
:3
Just realized I messed up the actual numbers, but I'm too lazy to correct them
So in other words....you have no idea what you're talking about and don't know the right answer, yet you still feel compelled to tell me that I'm wrong. I guess the internet never changes no matter what kind of people are on the forum...
I misread the results, taking the 1872 responses, instead of 964 users. In no way does that change the math behind it. Just in case you actually care about the numbers, the updated figures would be:
P(Cis) = 0.55
P(Straight) = 0.36
P(Cis ∧ Straight) = 0.20
giving us 20% cis and straight people.
Based on these numbers alone, anywhere from 0 to 341 respondents could be both straight and cis
It's not possible to answer that precisely with the data available, but we can make an estimate.
43.3% of respondents are straight. 58.4% are cisgender. If we assume there's no correlation between being straight and being cis, then 43.3% of cis people will also be straight. That gives us 43.3% × 58.4% = 25.3% of respondents being both cis and straight. 25.3% of 950 is 240 people.
So uhh, just for fun I calculated it through with every branch of the tree and drew it. It's off by 00,01% so the total of everything combined is 99,99%
Just to clarify for others: "no correlation" means that they are not related to each other.
So we're calculating the probability of us picking a random person that is both cis and straight. This means the probability always stays the same since it doesnt depend on any other probability
king
There's actually a ton of correlation between cis and straight while there's tons of correlation between trans and gay. In a nutshell identity and attraction are independent biological factors: There's proportionally about as many gay cis folks as there's straight trans folks, or differently speaking with trans folks the attraction follows the statistical distribution of the assigned-at-birth sex.
It's enbies and inter folks I think were all bets are off regarding attraction, would have to look at those studies again and please don't ask me where to find them I have no idea it's been a while.
Given that I'd ballpark cishets at about 40%, thereabouts.
We're mostly interested in the first branch of the tree (the top one)