this post was submitted on 06 Oct 2023
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Ukraine has been trying to get into NATO for years, earnestly ever since Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea in 2014. For some reason (/s) having a big chunk of their land literally conquered has made them quite eager to get security assurances from more powerful countries.
But NATO had little interest in any immediate expansion of the organization to include Ukraine before the invasion, despite the pleas of the Ukrainian government. We considered that it would have increased tensions between us and Russia, that the Ukrainian military needed too much work in the short-term, and that Russia couldn't possibly be insane enough to try to invade Ukraine a second time.
How wrong we were.
Yeah, that’s the gist of it except I didn’t know we didn’t really care too much about expanding there militarily.
In any case, what exactly is NATO supposed to do if a country with a bad neighbor wants to join? After said neighbor already attacked it? Bruh.
Well, a country can only join NATO if ALL members of NATO agree to let the country in. So there's not much chance of a country already at war being accepted.
Funny enough, NATO was kind of lethargic before the war. A lot of NATO countries didn't take it seriously. It was hard to see it as anything but a relic of the Cold War. After all, it wasn't like Russia was going to start invading its neighbors again!
God. What a weird time we live in.
Honestly I was deeply convinced that the tactic of economically binding Russia to the EU via trade of resources (for example natural gas) and investments would absolutely make a war or even sanctions between the european NATO-members and Russia too costly for Russia to do anything stupid. There was way to much money in the balance for any outbreak of a war in Europe, neither the EU nor the Russians could afford it... or so I thought.
Turns our Russia will gladly shoot itself in the foot if they believe that they can absorb the breadbasket of Europe in the process. The geostrategic importance of Ukrainian Wheat was absolutely underestimated and the geostrategic importance of western markets to Russia was clearly overestimated.
I feel like shit for being this wrong, Russias neighbours warned us about this shit and the bigger western and central european countries did not listen.
Nah, man, it's absolutely a rational position to have taken. Don't feel too bad. The issue is, as we've all forcibly learned, is the Iron Law of Institutions - Russia doesn't do what it's in Russia's best interests. Russia does what is in Russian decisionmakers' best interests. And Putin's best interests include imperial revivalism and war fervor to prop up his corrupt regime.
Hey man, did I sound like a Russian shill or something in my initial comments?
No, but I do understand why people were quick to jump on you. Not your fault, mind you, it's just that this is a pretty high-tension period, and often, understandably, people jump to the worst conclusion due to Russian trolls poisoning the well, so to speak.