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Russia says Baltic telecoms cable was damaged just before nearby gas pipeline (www.reuters.com)

submitted 1 year ago by tal to c/europe@feddit.de

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[–] tal 3 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

looks dubious

I mean, no, this doesn't prove that it wasn't an intentional move from Russia, but it's consistent with it not being one.

I was skeptical that it was intentional when I heard about it, because that pipeline is small compared to other pipelines into the EU. If Russia starts intentionally knocking out EU pipelines, it's going to put them in a considerable amount of hot water with the EU. I don't think that Russia saying "well, that was just a small one" is going to mitigate things much. And it's going to create that trouble for a relatively-small impact, if that pipeline is the one they hit.

If Russia is going to start taking out EU pipelines in international waters, I'd expect it to be the big ones, like the pipelines out of Norway -- in for a penny, in for a pound. Those have potential to significantly disrupt things in the EU.

https://www.voanews.com/a/nordic-baltic-officials-tighten-security-at-energy-installations-after-baltic-sea-pipe-burst-/7306484.html

Norway is Europe's largest gas supplier and Western Europe's largest oil producer, exporting more than 120 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas in 2022,

Balticconnector, the Finland-Estonia pipeline, can only do 2.6 bcm/year.

And while I get the timing makes one raise an eyebrow, ships have occasionally damaged cables with their anchors. I dunno about pipelines, fewer of those.

googles

There was a ship that dragged (though did not, at the time, rupture, as happened with the Balticconnector gas pipeline) an oil pipeline off California in 2021:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/1-200-foot-ship-dragged-california-oil-pipeline-coast-guard-n1281718

Now, there are answers to why one might target Balticconnector rather than a larger pipeline. Someone in an earlier conversation suggested that maybe it could be Russia specifically intending to disrupt things for Finland (just joined NATO) or Estonia. Again, possible, but I just have a hard time with the risk-versus-reward on it.

And it doesn't really seem to me to mesh with Russia's strategy on Ukraine. Russia is hoping that western countries will get tired of supporting Ukraine or that Ukraine will get tired of fighting. Starting to take out pipelines would be poking the EU in the eye, which I'd call counterproductive to that.