this post was submitted on 14 Jul 2023
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Only if Hollywood wants to go completely non-union. Good luck with that. IATSE isn't going to crow a movie if SAG-AFTRA and the WGA aren't involved. Maybe they'll find enough non-union crew to do a big time movie, but they'll be making it in the Philippines.
Or in America.
In the long term, AI is going to be such a massive force multiplier that you'll be able to get away with non union writers and actors.
If all goes well you will be able to produce a film in your basement and have it rival the quantity of the current big boys. That will be a long while, but in the meantime any industry that loses a 2x productivity boost will die to its competition.
Especially in the modern world. Centralized stars and production is crazy in a world where you can pull out a camera and buy a rendering supercomputer for a few thousand dollars.
Maybe years down the road, but we're talking about today. Making a non-union movie and expecting it to be something like a Marvel movie- it won't. It will be a movie that will end up on Mystery Science Theater 3000 because it will suck.
A deal made today will still be in effect in a decade, and the use of AI is already in effect in smaller ways, especially with the deage tech.