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Nikki Haley to launch $10m ad campaign in bid to overtake Ron DeSantis in GOP fight
(www.theguardian.com)
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this post was submitted on 13 Nov 2023
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I think a lot of people lack imagination about what can happen between now and the primaries/general. Trump could be found guilty for numerous crimes. He could go to jail. He could lose his money and properties in that civil trial. He is also an old man that could get dementia, be diagnosed with cancer, or suddenly die of natural causes. If he is suddenly out of the running, being second is very valuable.
“But for most of those events, people will support him anyways!” Maybe. This is all unprecedented. I don’t know where people get their level of certainty from.
You act like they wouldn’t vote for his corpse
I think you misunderstand me. I am not "acting like" anything is certain. I am explicitly endorsing uncertainty. One of the things I fucking hate about the internet is all the insane confidence, and groupthink around that confidence. If it later turns out he loses, a bunch of people will come out and say, "I always thought that. I don't think anyone thought he would win from jail." and I'll want to scratch out my eyes.
Some definitely will never abandon him. He has a high floor. But he needs support from more than his rabid base to dominate the primaries like he has. Will moderate suburban Republicans also support him from jail? If you're confident about predicting that, the prediction is based on no historical data because it's unprecedented.
I am absolutely confident that no sequence of events could cost Trump the republican nomination. Infirmity, imprisonment, penury? Irrelevant.
The general is less predictable. But the republican primary-voting base is locked in for Trump until death.