this post was submitted on 14 Dec 2023
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I looked it up on Anydice and it would have a 31.25% chance of killing a random Commoner. Unless they get death saves, in which case it's only a 12.5% chance.
Did you account for nat 20 and 1s in that calculus?
I did not. But if you get a nat 20, it's not a d4, is it? I assume they were accounted for in the death saves, but I just looked up the answer for that part.
D20 to hit, D4 for damage
If my hit die rolls a 20, is the damage not critical, and therefore dealing the most I possibly can?
Crits double the dice. So it's not d4, it's 2d4
If we're counting that, how about proficiency bonus? And do we count the chance of the attack missing entirely?