this post was submitted on 10 Jan 2024
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This is going to be a wild year for the white-collar bubble. Always remember that corporate wants "good enough for cheap" not "best in class."
Yeah I'm not surprised or angry about it, isn't this basically what has always happened? Like at some point we had elevator operators, some company automated the elevator and now there are basically zero elevator operators.
This is just happening all the time, like when I was a kid every gas station had people working at the station. Nowdays most stations around me are completely without workers, it's all self checkout (like supermarkets, McDonalds, etc).
You are right but the problem here is it's happening all at once on several fields. It's not just elevator operators, it's anyone doing basic design tasks, writing, translating, voice narrating, and basic programming. And that's a lot of jobs.
My career was as a copyeditor, and we were the canaries in the coal mine when it came to learning about "good enough." First came the buyouts of anyone with any longevity, then the annual layoffs started (and continued for nearly 10 years) until editing was completely excised from the role and anyone remaining was just a pair of hands moving rectangles for several papers on any given night. Cancellations were less than we'd cost.
Thing is, there was a fairly long exit ramp for those of us smart enough to see the endgame (I was not among them, believing there'd always be sufficient demand for rigorously vetted and edited news to keep papers afloat).
This time around, we're not even 14 months out from the public release of ChatGPT, and having used just the free model, its abilities do raise the question "why do we have someone doing this?" for a number of fields I've worked in. Layoffs are happening without warning caused by something not even on most people's radars mid-2022, and there's no way it slows down from here.
Couldn't agree more, you make a point with the timeline. It's changing too fast. And it's not only ChatGPT but also image generation tools such as Midjourney. There are AI for 3D models too now, which I believe will be of industry standard quality in a year or two.
AI is a phenomenon of a similar weight as the Industrial Revolution, but its much faster development means a lot of people can't keep up or change careers
Yet, unemployment in most of the western world is very low. That could change, of course. We'll likely need universal basic income down the road. Or at least some very enhanced unemployment benefits.
It's only been one year. I'd like to see how this topic aged in 2026. AI is developing at an unprecedented speed for a socioeconomic phenomenon of its calibre.
Edit: And yes we might need some kind of government support. What scares me is, where do you get the money to support such a large population?
AI supporters would tell you that productivity improvements made with AI tech will make that possible.
If you honestly believe this, I have a bridge in London to sell you.