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S&P 500 is 'bizarrely overvalued' and could crash 49% as recession sets in, elite strategist says
(markets.businessinsider.com)
this post was submitted on 17 Mar 2024
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of the economics book, The Black Swan, had a great take on this. I'm paraphrasing but he was like how Economists can go in the news, make a prediction, and if they're wrong, nothing. But if they're right, they become a staple of business news and sell out all of their books. So financially, it's better to make a lot of predictions and hope to win the "I guess right" lottery.
Jesse Livermoore said “the markets act, and the papers look for the explanation.” It was true 100 years ago and it’s true now.
That's like me at the stop light trying to predict when it will change. "1, 2, 3... change".."1, 2, 3........change". "1, 2, 3 change" light changes. I feel smug in my elite ability to predict the change.
You’re very correct. The market is very much a predator and prey relationship, and the justifications afterwards are for the fans at home. I once saw the whole market tilt because one man (Bill Hwang) lost his leveraged multibillion dollar position.
There's an old scam that runs the same way. On a 2 outcome wager like which team wins a game send 500 people prediction team A wins and 500 people team B wins. For the 500 people who got the right one send 250 team C wins and the other 250 team D wins. By the time you're down to ~7 people they all received 7 winning predictions in a row, then you ask them for a bet on a 'sure thing' for the 8th game.