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Evidence that LLMs are reaching a point of diminishing returns - and what that might mean
(garymarcus.substack.com)
Unofficial ChatGPT community to discuss anything ChatGPT
I've rarely seen anyone so committed to being a broken clock in the hope of being right at least once a day.
Of course, given he built a career on claiming a different path was needed to get where we are today, including a failed startup in that direction, it's a bit like the Upton Sinclair quote about not expecting someone to understand a thing their paycheck depends on them not understanding.
But I'd be wary of giving Gary Marcus much consideration.
Generally as a futurist if you bungle a prediction so badly that four days after you were talking about diminishing returns in reasoning a product comes out exceeding even ambitious expectations for reasoning capabilities in an n+1 product, you'd go back to the drawing board to figure out where your thinking went wrong and how to correct it in the future.
Not Gary though. He just doubled down on being a broken record. Surely if we didn't hit diminishing returns then, we'll hit them eventually, right? Just keep chugging along until one day those predictions are right...