this post was submitted on 16 Apr 2024
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[–] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 5 points 6 months ago (2 children)

I should note that Obama had a sub-50 approval rating in 2012 when he beat Mitt Romney. But Romney also wasn't pulling in record-breaking primary vote totals or seeing huge groundswells of MAGA-tier support.

Biden coasted to victory in 2020 thanks to a pandemic everybody hated and four years of Trump fresh in their minds. I don't think he has those advantages anymore.

[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 3 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (1 children)

Biden coasted to victory in 2020

What?

Are you talking about popular vote? That sadly doesn't matter.

Biden won a handful of states by razor thin margins, which got him the presidency. And it took his campaign spending a literal billion dollars to accomplish that

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/09/politics/2020-election-trump-biden-closest-states/index.html

And he's less popular now... Not just nationwide, but in state polling for those states.

We don't live in a direct democracy, so you have to look kinda close to see what's happening.

[–] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world -2 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Biden won a handful of states by razor thin margins

Biden's margins improved substantially from election day, as the mail-in ballots filled up the vote count. Pennsylvania's margin grew by 80,000 votes from the razor thin win he had when polls closed. He won states Democrats hadn't taken since the 1970s. He nearly swept the Midwest, with the tipping point state of his win being Wisconsin.

And he’s less popular now… Not just nationwide, but in state polling for those states.

Oh yeah. He's absolutely fucked now. Very real chance he loses in a landside in 2024 as all of those Obama-Trump-Biden states flip back into Trump's column.

[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 0 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Pennsylvania’s

I didn't know he won his home state by that much

He won states Democrats hadn’t taken since the 1970s.

What states? Don't feel like you have to list them all, but you said plural so at least two of you wouldn't mind.

I tried googling it and didn't find much

[–] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world -1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

What states?

Arizona and Georgia

[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world -1 points 6 months ago

Arizona

1996

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_Arizona

Georgia

1992

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_Georgia

Now, I might not be the best at math, but the 1990s came after the 1970s...

So...

He won states Democrats hadn’t taken since the 1970s.

Do you have two examples of that? Or was the 90s as far back as you found and you didn't think I'd check?

[–] BreakDecks@lemmy.ml 1 points 6 months ago

To be fair, the only state he broke primary vote total records in this year was New Hampshire (pop. 1.4m).

He's breaking his own records from 2016, but the conditions of the 2016 primary and the 2024 primary are pretty different, given that there was never any real competition against him this year, mostly just a clown show.