You're not thinking correctly. The right is not a giant monolith. Many people who lean right or are centrists voted for Biden last election because they too despise Trump. Those are the kind of people who will vote for RFK. Now, they still get to vote against Trump, but don't have to vote for Biden. And yes, of course voting 3rd party is essentially the same as voting for whoever wins up winning, but people are idiots and don't understand that logic.

Yeah, I think that’s generally the idea. But i think the same would’ve been true of Gary whatshisface in 2016, the libertarian guy. I’m not really sure that’s how it shook out in the end, though.

I also think the more-likely-to-be-democrat voters are probably just generally more likely to vote third party, knowing it’s a throwaway, in order to send a message. The right really doesn’t ever seem to break apart, that ~48-50% of people seemingly can’t be turned away no matter what happens. Look at all those street interviews done recently. Those “anyone but trump” republicans, when pressed on who they’d vote for if Nikki Haley couldn’t win the primary, they all waffled for a minute before saying they’d vote for trump. After calling him a fascist, a racist, etc. The conditioning on the right is so strong. It needs to be studied. I’m sure it will be if humanity survives the next 20 years.