this post was submitted on 11 Aug 2023
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[–] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 4 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Any thoughts on how I could incorporate that for a better back of the napkin?

[–] bloodfoot@programming.dev 3 points 1 year ago

If we stick with your 1/44 assumption, we can then assume 50% chance that the following day will also be a record setting day (probably too low still but the math is easier). Your one week estimate would be (1/44)*(1/2)^6.