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The projected poll places the Tories on just 53 seats - with even the PM losing his seat. This would place the Tories with lowest number of seats since 1832 when party was formed.
this post was submitted on 19 Jun 2024
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Be careful of the Monkey's Paw - Reform in opposition may mean Reform in power in 10-15 years. The collapse of the Torries is for sure nice to see, but much of that voting block is moving right, not left, and that scares me.
Right now it doesn't look like they're going to win many seats. I hope the LibDems make second.
We will see. I suspect a great deal of reform support is just coming from disgruntled conservatives who can't bring themselves to vote left. Another 5 years of reform candidate saying things like "Hitler was right" will probably sap for the great deal of support.
I moved to Germany, so I know only too well how quickly AfD moved from unelectable to likely coalition partners in the next government. Complacency is a gift to the far right...
We will see, but their support seems mostly theoretical. They don't really have any actual policies and the only way they could think to gain any kind of legitimacy was to bring back the only person who has any real reputation (albeit not entirely universal). And that was despite the fact that they actually do have an MP, since he's a total tit no one likes him.
It isn't complacent it's just a realistic observation of the facts. Their support is 12% at best but probably a lot less when the ballots actually accounted. People like to say they'll vote one way on polls because they are really conservative voters and want to give the conservatives a kick up the arse.
the lib dems are at best center, at worst center right.