Explanation of the chart:
On the last match day of Group-A (23 Jun), it's SUI v GER, SCO v HUN. Their performances up to this point and 9 tie-breaking criteria determine who advances and in which position. Rather than explaining all of that, this chart just gives you the possible outcomes for 1st and 2nd place. Rows are the SCO/HUN result, columns are the SUI/GER result. Find the 2 results you're interested in (1 row, 1 column) and see which colour corresponds to them. 3rd place also has the possibility to advance. If HUN wins, it's them, otherwise it's SCO except for the blue region where it would be SUI. Group [A] winner advances to play Group [C]-2nd. Group [A]-2nd plays Group [B]-2nd (likely Italy or Spain).
Yeah, definitely 3rd with 4 points if we win (barring unlikely circumstances putting us second) - but would it be a good enough 3rd place to get one of the 4 qualifying spots? Hopefully!
I believe there's also a scenario where we draw, finish 3rd with 2 pointa and still qualify, but it seems very unlikely.