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Biden’s debate performance sets off alarm bells for Democrats (www.cnn.com)

submitted 1 week ago by nekandro@lemmy.ml to c/worldnews@lemmy.ml

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[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 2 points 6 days ago

Yeah your just wrong.

You obviously don't know the rules for the DNC or how primary's work, or have any kind of meaningful political acumen. You are your archetypes have been spouting this plainly wrong "political wisdom" both here and across cable news for months, years even. And reality has now bucked your claims.

Bidens not the nominee. He lost that last night. And it's a good thing. He's losing dramatically to Trump right now.

[-] tacosplease@lemmy.world 5 points 6 days ago

Such confidence in statements that will be proven wrong in a matter of days. LOL. You'll forget these comments by then though.

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world -3 points 6 days ago

I mean I'm taking bets.

I'll take 20:1 if you feel so generous as to give me those odds.

I'll lay down $20: Biden isn't the nominee; and a second $20: Biden is does not win the Presidential election.

If I'm wrong on the nominee, you get $20. If I'm wrong on them winning the presidency, another $20.

If I'm right on the nominee, you pay me $400. If I'm right on them not winning the Presidency (for any reason), that's another $400 you owe me.

Bet? Or coward that doesn't really believe what they believe when they are held accountable?

If you don't like those odds, feel free to offer odds you prefer and I'll consider them.

[-] tacosplease@lemmy.world 3 points 6 days ago

How would we enforce the bet?

Why 20:1 and not 1:1?

Or even 1:20 if you're so confident?

Believe in yourself. Take the 1:20 bet.

That'll show me.

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 0 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

20:1 specifically?

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

That's just the odds of Biden (or Trump for that matter) keeling over for literally any reason whatsoever based on the social security actuarial table. So if I can get 20:1, I should be break even betting against any octogenarian.

There is a little bit better than a 1 in 15 chance, that for any 81 year old, they'll die that year. So I hedged it to 1:20 as insurance, because I figured I'm really only betting on the first 9 months of the year. If I can get 1:20, that's break even odds (actually slightly in my favor). Also, figure the presidency, campaigning; that shit aint a walk in the park. Probably more likely still to die in office than a standard octogenarian.

I'll give you 10:1 if you bet at least 50 bucks. I lose, you make $50; I win, I make $500. Hows that sound?

Edit: As to how to enforce it, we can make a community and pin it there. ITs similar to what we used to do in a bar I frequented where we would bet pints (very similarly) on whatever was happening. There was a cork-board and bets would get pinned to it. And I trust you.

[-] concrete_baby@sh.itjust.works 4 points 6 days ago

I'll eat my hat and comment here if Biden doesn't gets his nomination. I didn't say Biden is the nominee. I didn't even use the word "nominee". Its you who keeps attacking the straw man. But you know what? I'm 100% sure the DNC will nominate Biden. That debate performance was bad but he ain't losing his presumptive nomination. Don't confuse reality with what you want to happen.