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Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 election results says Democrats shouldn't drop Joe Biden (www.usatoday.com)

submitted 2 days ago by jeffw@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

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He got 2000 "wrong"... Or did he?

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[-] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 14 points 2 days ago

When pressed about whether the questions surrounding Biden’s age and mental acuity are “fundamentally different” than his metrics as president, Lichtman doubled down.

“Debate performances can be overcome,” he said. “At the first sign of adversity the spineless Democrats want to throw under the bus, their own incumbent president. My goodness.”

So, he refuses to factor anything in if it doesn't fit his system... Literally refusing to acknowledge any health concerns

His system is this:

Lichtman is best known for the "Keys" system, presented in his books The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency and The Keys to the White House. The system uses thirteen historical factors to predict whether the popular vote in the election for president of the United States will be won by the candidate of the party holding the presidency (regardless of whether the president is the candidate).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Lichtman

And it doesn't account for specific candidate...

So by his own argument that his system can't acknowledge a candidates fitness would come into play, logically I don't understand why he is speaking on who the specific candidate should be.

[-] nilloc@discuss.tchncs.de 5 points 2 days ago

And the popular vote means fuck all for the election anyway, so who cares about this system if it didn’t factor in the electoral college?

[-] FlowVoid@lemmy.world 7 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

The system is currently meant to predict the electoral college winner, not the popular vote winner.

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this post was submitted on 01 Jul 2024

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