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You are right Russia is likely to invade.
However you just cannot seem to understand that NATO is also likely to invade Russia. NATO is not the good guys you want to have on your border if you are not inside of NATO.
NATO will lie about WMD's and make up any excuse to invade a country if they want to do so and 10 years later all the brainwashed kiddos here will still tell you that we were right to invade Iraq
Just like Russia does imperialism we also do imperialism. In fact we do way more of it.
There was a buffer zone between Russia and us which was Poland, Ukraine etc. Then we decided to expand NATO into that buffer zone in the last 20 years.
Now we that the last countries in the buffer zone are about to join NATO, Russia decides they have nothing to lose by attacking Ukraine first before it joins NATO because we are not willing to leave any buffer zone
There was no buffer zone. Poland, Slovakia, the Baltics were under Russian military occupation for most of the last century.
Russian soldiers were on the NATO border even back then. Soviet troops suppressed multiple revolutions aimed at creating an actual buffer zone, in 1956, in 1968 and so on. The bullet holes are still there. Some who fought are still alive.
When the Wall fell, all these "buffer zone" countries wanted to join NATO because they knew the Russians will come back.
Ukraine was indeed a buffer zone. Ukraine wanted to be one. Everyone signed that in Budapest. And yet when Ukraine wanted to do something and go its own way separate from Russia, but not into NATO either, Russia invaded in 2014.
Russia broke that buffer zone. And sincerely, Eastern Europe has agency and can decide who its allies are. Russia has always been an enemy, and if you look at Finland, even dealing with the devil itself had better outcomes than giving an inch to Russia.