this post was submitted on 16 Jul 2024
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I don't live in the USA but people in our media say it too.
I don't understand it though: are there people that voted for Biden last time that will now vote for Trump, even though he is now a convicted felon, and tried to steal the election?
Or is it just that everyone thinks that people won't come out to vote for Biden?
Can you help me understand?
Depressed Biden turnout and energized Trump turnout.
I don't know why people keep thinking it's about switching votes. The side that gets their supporters to turn out is the side that wins.
And there's no better way to depress the Dem turnout than to tell everyone we've already lost.
I just want to point out that the polls haven't changed after this incident. He has not gained more support. We can still do this.
I get that it's more about turnout than conversion but are there many Trump supporters that didn't vote for him last time?
My impression at the time was that Trump did a very good job of energizing his base and getting the vote out. Are there actually many people that were indifferent/too lazy/too busy in 2020 but now think Trump is a good candidate? Is that fraction of the population actually larger than the fraction of people that now see him as a lethal threat to what's left of democracy in America?
Has gerrymandering gotten worse somehow?
First Past The Post voting artificially limits the number of viable political parties to two. This leaves a huge portion of the electorate disenfranchised.
It's a little bit of both. You have your hardcore Republicans and Democrats who will always vote for their party and a lot of independents who who are just barely paying attention and vote for "the one I'd have a beer with". There's also the situation in Gaza that has people voting 3rd party to protest Biden's handling of the situation even though it'll be much worse with Trump.
A lot of others can't be bothered to vote unless it's someone they're excited to vote for like we had with Obama.
Also not in the USA but I think the fear is that people that didn't vote at all last time will vote for Trump now
Primarily the second. Biden barely won some key swing states (look up the Electoral College and all the bs that brings into US elections) in an election with higher turnout than any in the past century, 4 years of Trumps general fuckery in the immediate past, and an ongoing pandemic. (tbf, the pandemic should have been in Trump's favor, but he's Trump, so...yeah)
Public memory is short, and along with very recent stumbles and valid criticisms of certain positions of his, Biden is coming into this election very much on the back foot, even among his base, while Trump is going strong as ever. He needs every vote he can get and he's not getting anywhere near the support he had in 2020. It's looking pretty dour overall.
Bingo...
Fucking 100 less press conferences on average than any president since ducking Reagan to make sure we never had a constant story of him succeeding and then to stumble out like that? What the fuck did he think was gonna happen?!
I really just can't understand what happened here and how more people close to Biden couldn't get through to him or see what was coming.