this post was submitted on 27 Jul 2024
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Investors are already souring on the AI cost to value return. This is no longer a rush to capitalize on free money - it's a panic dash to discover something that produces profit before the bubble bursts.
There won't be bailouts for failed ventures. See the dotcom bubble for comparison. These are exuberant investors expecting massive returns "soon" and getting told "eh... it's just 2 to 5 more years away." That wasn't priced into the expansion of these stocks price. Once it starts to crumble it will be a mad dash to the door to not be the guy holding the bag.
Personally I think that Nvidia may have fucked themselves. They are valued at 10x what they were and have gone nearly all in on hyperconverged ai infrastructure. Thanks to their acquisitions and design choices they have made it a walled garden. Meanwhile most other manufacturers are investing in open architecture to take them on. If this gambit fails they will be struggling to find market share in a world hostile to their entire stack. This is how giants fall.