Seed oilz baaaad!
this post was submitted on 09 Aug 2023
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Let's say 1/20 believable conspiracy theories are true. If I disbelieve all of them I'll be 19/20 = 95% correct.
If I believe in one of them there is a 1/20 chance I'll pick the right one and be 100% correct and 19/20 chance I'll pick the wrong one and have two incorrect beliefs (one false positive and one false negative). 1/20100+19/2090 = 90.5% correct.
Feel free to correct my not even a napkin math. Or challenge the assumption that only 1/20 believable conspiracy theories are true. Or just agree and outsource the effort of thinking to someone trying to compensate lack of sleep with egregious amounts of caffeine.