Is this just western pundits playing with "what if" scenarios, or are there actually signs of major splits inside Russia?
this post was submitted on 14 Aug 2023
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I'll bite, here's a little list of the top of my head.
- They've had a failed invasion of Ukraine
- Rampant corruption
- Putin is getting old and frail
- Russia has a struggling economy where "Fortress Russia" is starting to fall short
- Drone strikes from Ukraine have been able to target major Russian cities.
- There was a mini-coup attempt by one of Putin's closest allies where a standing army nearly made it to Moscow while shooting down multiple Russian military aircraft.
The linked article hypothesizes "a rump Russia reduced to the area bounded by St. Petersburg, Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod." Even given the country's struggles, I have a hard time imagining large chunks of Russia breaking away. My question is whether there is evidence to believe that kind of split has become a real possibility. Neither Putin nor his successor would allow it without a serious fight given the immense value of the natural resources and sea ports Russia would lose.
They're getting pushed back in Ukraine 400 km from Moscow, I think the Muscovites would have a hard time sustaining logistics 5000 km away in Siberia.
Imo, anyone who's going to try to break away from Russia, ahem Serbia, would wait until Russia's military collapses before they make any official announcements.
But plenty of Russian allies have secretly worked against Russia itself, won't be long before they're all doing it as overtly as Turkey's Erdogan.
It's an opinion piece
Wel that's just your opinion, man...
Won't say it can't happen as it has happened twice in 20th century but let's not get all moist on all this hopium.
The main issue is that given the current power structure in Russia, Putin cannot have a real heir apparent. If there's someone that everyone expects to take power after Putin, he has to get rid of them because they pose an intolerable threat. As a result, there is no such person. There are probably dozens of people who could take power after he's gone, but it's uncertain who will come out on top.
Amid all that chaos, whether one person will be able to exert power overall all of current Russian territory is also anyone's guess. If the answer is no, then the current version of Russia will break apart.
Oh and there are tons of nukes in the mix here too .
The interesting part to me is that the article is talking about a reduced Russia centered around St. Petersburg, Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod, all of which are in the Western part of Russia. I could see China eying any splintered territories in their area for ~~annexation~~ "stabilization". And I could see some of those territories deciding that it's better to stick with an imperialistic Russia than it would be to get "subdued" by China.
In the Foundation novel, Hari Seldon described the Empire as a dead tree branch has all the appearance of strength until the storm blast breaks it into two.