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Why does Xi think he gets any say? He’s showing his full hand already, and it’s actually pathetic. Already saying that it will have to be taken by force. So he’s admitting that the people of Taiwan, if given a choice, may not choose to join China. Let’s give everyone a vote guaranteed by international overwatch, none of those mainland representatives.
This is just another dictator having a whiny shitstorm threatening to take territory by force just because they want their historical empire.
Because the winds are blowing in his favour. Xi (and the rest of the world) have watched Russia take land with little repercussion. The reaction to the invasion of Crimea was mild and allowed for the full on invasion years later. The rules have changed and now leaders are seeing that taking land, which used to be seen as a relic of the past, is back on the menu.
The US and a lot of the west is afraid to get involved and do what needs to be done to stop Putin, and Xi knows that if he waits for the perfect moment Taiwan will be his.
The US is building domestic chip manufacturing in case they lose TSMC, and once it's operational one of the main reasons they consider Taiwan an asset will be gone. Xi likely is hoping the war in Ukraine and Israel will continue and "news fatigue" will render people uninterested in a new conflict. I'm not sure what the final nail will be that makes him move, but a controllable president like Trump getting in is a good bet.
I think there are two differences between Taiwan and Ukraine: Putin is fucking insane and might actually use nukes if attacked directly by a NATO nation, but I don't think Xi would do that (I could be wrong on both assessments). And Ukraine doesn't really have anything the world wants, while Taiwan (like you correctly pointed out) is about the only place that makes high performance computer chips and nobody wants China to have a world-wide stranglehold on that product.
I think, before any chip maker in Taiwan is taken by chinese forces, their factories and laboritories might explode for some reason or another. I don't think that China can take them without catastrophic loss of very expensive and sensitive equipment that requires very specialised workers they don't have. All of these things can't be replaced in a reasonable time frame, especially at war.
If China follows through with an invasion, they might be after something else.
That something else is: Taiwan is an important geographic location. A separate Taiwan prevents China from having full easy access to the Pacific Ocean. If China holds Taiwan, China will be able to project its naval powers much further into the Pacific and the US does not like it.
This has always been the case since the KMT fled to Taiwan, way before Taiwan became a high-tech chip producing country. Way before Taiwan democratized. (Remember, Chiang Kai-Shek himself was a authoritarian asshole that has killed many earlier migrants to Taiwan.)
It's nice to have TSMC producing high-tech chips, but Samsung and Intel can also do so, perhaps only a process node (or half) behind TSMC, but Intel CPUs are no slouch compared to AMD's despite being a node behind. And Samsung have been producing some of nVidia's GPUs so they're not out of the game. But TSMC does need to be recognized and I don't really think it can be reproduced in the US. Taiwan has a very highly educated and underpaid engineering work force. I really don't think you can reproduce the same results in the US at the same costs. Its going to cost 5-10X more to move to the US.
Ukraine is a huge exporter of grain. Breadbasket to much of the world. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/ukraine-s-food-exports-by-the-numbers/.
but not to european and US, and that's what matter
I think Putin is out of touch and lives with a completely different world view than you or I, but I don't think he is insane or suicidal. Look at how far away he stayed from people during COVID.
I think we do ourselves a disservice by bowing down to his sabre rattling every time he reminds us he has nukes. We know, and he also knows the second one will drop on his head if he tries it. It's just posturing to get people likrnus arguing and making his land grab seem more legitimate, like there's nothing we can really do.
He will always have nukes, and if we alwuas back down because not them he will always get his way.
Ukraine has 24% of the world's supply of noble gasses used in computer chip manufacturing, along with 35% of the remaining helium on the planet.
I think the Russians want this very much and that is why Russia is even in Ukraine.
The US is providing funding for companies like TSMC and Intel to buld fabs in the US. The reality is that TSMC is having a very hard time hiring and deal with cultural gaps between Asian working mindset vs. American working mindset. There's going to be some serious pain getting these fabs up and running.
Because the world has said Taiwan is part of China. That’s why. The world needs to recognize Taiwan as its own nation. Everyone wanted that cheap labor in China and ignored Taiwan.
Unfortunately, the main reason the world won't recognize Taiwan as its own nation is because it doesn't have UN status as a nation. And the only way to get status as a nation is get all 5 votes from the UN Security Council. China is on the UN Security Council.
The US is providing military and money to help defend Taiwan from China, but at the same time does not recognize them as independent from China. The whole one-vote veto in the UN is fucking stupid.
The irony is that Taiwan once held that UN security-council seat. I do believe the people of China needs to be represented in the UN, but doing so at the cost of Taiwanese people's representation completely defeats the purpose of having a UN in the first place.
Taiwanese people don’t want the island to be recognized as its own nation though. They benefit from close economic relations with the mainland and so are happy to maintain the status quo. The majority voted against pro independence candidates in recent elections, something this article fails to mention. That of course doesn’t mean Taiwanese people trust the mainland nor do they want to be politically integrated into it. However the situation is more nuanced than many western media outlets would have you believe.
Being reported as Chinese propaganda, but as usual the truth seems to be more nuanced than that...
I will admit, I am not Chinese and my understanding of the deeper issues is imperfect at best, but according to here:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwan-already-independent
The Taiwanese people DEFINITELY do not want Unification, but at the same time, they see an official declaration of statehood as superfluous.
It's not so much that they don't WANT independence, it's that, as far as they see it, they already ARE independent, no declaration necessary.
Its nice to have something official and have recognition from the rest of the world and to be able to participate in UN or WHO and as "Taiwan" or even "ROC" instead of "Chinese Taipei" in sport contests.
But there is always a threat of war from China if Taiwan does the above. So no one wants to take that risk and be the one that starts the war, possibly WW3.
Oh, I agree, but I can also see the argument of "We're already independent!" If it were ME, I would want an official designation from the UN, but like you say, it may be more trouble than it's worth.
While we sound rabidly pro-Taiwanese, the US diplomatic position on the PRC/ROC is some wild Cold War type shit. Technically, we recognize both claims as claims that both organizations have made and that both organizations have the right to make those claims. Vague as vague can get. The State Department was seriously like "we agree to disagree... with ourselves."
I love how he says "reunion" as if it's a 20 year old who grew up an orphan meeting their real parents for the first time after they were kidnapped at 2 y/o.
What an incredibly specific metaphor.
He doesn't care about Taiwan as being part of China. He cares about those lovely tech companies with TMSC as the crown jewel. China wants to be the new world order and need chips to get that done. Taiwan being reunited with the mainland is only to fuel the nationalists to beg Xi to do it.
Never underestimate the attraction of national pride to a nationalist. Taiwan would stick in his craw even if it wasn't home to some of the most important industries in the modern world.
He's technically correct - the Taiwanese government are the legitimate government of China living in exile from the Communist Party's violent take over.
This is a wild take. The Chiang Kai-shek’s KMT did not have any more legitimacy than the CPC. He was a straight up fascist and after fleeing to Taiwan he politically repressed native Taiwanese people by having them massacred. You can oppose Xi and the CPC without having to pretend the KMT was at all legitimate.
Who determines which leader rules? Rock, paper, scissors?
Oh look what happened by letting Poots do his thing can't wait for the 4 world zones to be complete
Back to Säbelrasseln?
This is their official policy. And if Taiwan wanted to unify, I don't think any force COULD stop the reunion. He's not talking about whether or not an invasion would work.
Someone should remind him that bullets are force.
I almost want to see him try, because invading Taiwan is more likely to ruin the communist party than the Taiwanese government.