Going too far, on the other hand, accelerates the formation of alternative alliances, BRICS being the most prominent, and growth of authoritarian axis.
And on a different angle, Linux always adhered to truly collaborative open source policy, and I'm concerned more about what this decision means to that rather than Russia. If we start excluding maintainers based on nationality, not only we'll be left without many great people supporting essential programs, we'll be left with a political division in a sphere where collaboration means everything. Seeing other people being kicked out of something so big (and, for all I've heard, even the attributions removed) is not a great motivating tool to invest your time and effort into something that can so easily be taken away from you.
Virtue signaling and spreading hate as a way to distance yourself has truly never led to something good.
And with the direction US and EU are taking recently, I have more sad reasons to believe your words are true. Let's hope they're not.
Thanks for your input.