Joncash2

Oh it's totally going to get far fucking worse. I'm just pointing out the problems are already here. Fingers crossed we don't nuke ourselves to cavemen times. Or maybe we'll get to live the fall out games. Better than caveman times so we got that going for us.

China's not negotiating. This is the best result for China. As long as USA is going to continually be belligerent with tariffs to all nations, China actually would not benefit with preferential treatment.

China wants to let the tariffs slowly but persistently eat away at USA's economy. 30% is just about right as Mexico and Canada are at 25%. China doesn't need to be the cheapest, just affordable enough that Americans will still buy. So while trade will decrease it won't stop. This gives China the breathing room they need to build up supply chains everywhere else. All the while Americans will afford less and less as tariffs eat away at their income. This will lead to less business creation activity and destroy manufacturing as the manufacturing inputs being tariffed makes USA products unaffordable.

If this looks like China is capitulating, all the better. Though most people realize it's Trump that blinked. Since their counter actions aren't really tariffs to begin with. China can order their companies who they buy from and more importantly who they don't.

You mean a product that has no shipping costs can be replicated infinitely for free and maintains high paying jobs is worth more than sweat shop factories? Say it ain't so. Obviously we want to give up on YouTube and MS office etc... So we can put tiny screws into iPhones.

Uh, I'm pretty sure we are already seeing water wars. The India Pakistan conflict has a large amount due to India blocking the Indus river. China's south China seas claims is largely over control of bodies of water. The reason Turkey cares so much about Syria is because of the Eufrates basin. Hell, even Trump's wildly insane conflict over Greenland is over the artic water ways. And that's a short list. I'm pretty sure we are screwed...

I mean, this is literally what China has been saying everyone should do. They even made a whole video about it.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/559472/china-sends-stern-video-message-to-trump-on-trade-war-we-won-t-kneel-down

I guess, more and more people are realizing that yeah, that's what everyone's going to have to do.

That's way too difficult a question to answer. But that said my theory is USA will have a lost decade like Japan. The distrust and broken agreements should have decades long effects. Can USA get back to where they were? Maybe, but no matter what now, it's going to take decades.

The biggest issue I have isn't that they're evil. Though obviously that's a huge issue, but that they are woefully incompetent. We've seen this type of evil before in the USA. Richard Nixon is obviously well known to be a greedy goon. But he did it in a way people didn't really see it until after he was impeached. Trump is way too obvious for his own good. Though, maybe that's a good thing... Burn it down asap

No, the tariffs are actively preventing monetary easing. If you were wondering what the news about bond rates and the conflict between Bessent and Powell is about, it's because they can't ease.

At a core easing relies on borrowing money to fix the downturn. Usually, when a downturn happens, interest rates go down because there's less to invest in. If you can't get a 8% return on stocks, you buy bonds until bond returns go below 4% or so. Except, thanks to crazy man tariffs, no one trusts the bonds anymore. So USA can't ease.

I also want to note, this was clearly Bessents original plan. Hurt the economy with tariffs, then do easing and pull more money back into the American Treasury. But oops, no one trusts USA anymore...

*Edit: Lol, god damn this happens fast. Powell is talking about what I'm talking about here literally just now.

https://lemmy.ml/post/29763814?scrollToComments=true

So the inflation he's talking about is why they can't ease. Normally when stocks go down, bonds go up it's caused by deflation. People stop spending money so prices go down and thus, bond rates go down. But we're not seeing deflation, we're seeing inflation, which again is causing the inability to monetarily ease. It's just funny to me we were just talking about this and bam, there's a news article.

That's a misunderstanding of the causes. Now, admittedly there's a debate on this so what I will say is an opinion, but one that shows how the tariffs did cause the great depression.

The problem people have in understanding the great depression is the initial shock isn't the cause so much as the trigger to the cause which is the tariffs.

Had the tariffs not come into play, the stock sell off and subsequent deflation could have been resolved with simple monetary easing, which is what we do today. This would have simply been a recession and we would move on. However, the tariffs following the stock sell off is why it's the great depression and not just a simple recession.

In fairness, monetary easing policy didn't really come into play until after Brenton wood agreement. That said, it would have been the right solution during the onset of the great depression.

So you can't actually say that tariffs didn't cause the great depression as again had it not been for tariffs we would have pulled through.

Why? I can tell you now that the Chinese delegation will essentially say nothing and simply report publically what the US is asking for. Something that other nations haven't done yet to allow USA to save face. This isn't something that China would be willing to do. China has no demands yet, nor any desire to end the trade war. What they do have a desire for is to make everything USA is trying to steal public knowledge.

It's not true, I have it on good authority they're playing Biden and Kamala speeches.

The translation isn't right, but I'm way too lazy to try to translate it all. Basically the whole thing boils down to why do I work at all, I should be selfish. To be honest, this doesn't seem convincing at all. Like what spy working for another country would flip because they decided they are selfish? Oh wait, American ones.

https://historica.fandom.com/wiki/Barry_Seal

Sorry America, the rest of the world isn't as full of selfish assholes like you are.

*Edit. I just realized something. If this is all they have to convince Chinese people to flip, they're really scratching the bottom of the barrel. Back in the day, against the soviets it was propaganda about a better life for their families and children. Now it's why won't the Chinese government give me millions.