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11/03/2024 Malaysia: the surprise winner from US-China chip wars

13/03/2024 Malaysia Rises as Crucial Link in chip supply chain

…According to estimates from open data, among the 18 defense agreements with the Philippines, only eight are regional countries while the rest are all from outside Southeast Asia, highlighting foreign interference in the South China Sea issue. 

In stark contrast to the previous Duterte administration, which pursued a peaceful settlement of disputes over the South China Sea, the current government has become more and more aggressive in stirring up tensions in the region, partly due to instigations from the US and partly out of political infighting, particularly between the two families of Duterte and Marcos, Chen Hong, executive director of the Asia Pacific Studies Centre at East China Normal University, told the Global Times on Sunday. 

"The intention of the provocations, most recently evident in the collision incident between a Filipino vessel and a Chinese coast guard ship, is to escalate this regional issue into an international one, by coaxing and misleading countries, especially those unaware of the true situation, and getting them to join the Philippine's anti-China camp," Chen said.

However, this scheme is doomed to fail. On Saturday, a Vietnam Foreign Ministry spokesperson voiced Hanoi's deep concern over the recent tensions between China and the Philippines around Ren'ai Reef, calling on self-restraint and the serious implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC).

Vietnam's reaction follows a visit to Manila by Indonesian President Joko Widodo in January with South China Sea issue high on the agenda, which experts said reflected Indonesia's urgency to "talk some sense" into the Philippines to stop its dangerous maneuvers. 

"Most ASEAN countries do not want to complicate things because they are well aware that only with stability in the South China Sea can they maintain a friendly relationship with China, which is crucial for the development of the entire region," Gu Xiaosong, dean of the ASEAN Research Institute of Hainan Tropical Ocean University, told the Global Times on Sunday. 

…Gu warned that among these foreign forces, China should pay special attention to Japan, Australia and India's collusion with Manila, as these countries are the key pawns in the US Indo-Pacific strategy. 

Leaders of Japan and the Philippines have agreed to start negotiations for a key defense pact that would allow their troops to enter each other's territory for joint military exercises. Additional Japanese patrol vessels, defense equipment and radars would be provided to strengthen the Philippines' law enforcement capability at sea, the Associated Press reported in November 2023.  

But even the US' closest allies are keeping an arm's length from South China Sea tensions. 

During a summit Australia hosted with ASEAN in Melbourne last week, while Marcos addressed the Australian Parliament with fiery rhetoric, Canberra and ASEAN seemed unmoved on the matter, calling for restraint from all parties in a collective statement. 

"In fact, even the US, the biggest agitator in the region, does not truly wish to directly confront China in the South China Sea," said Chen Hong. "Manila should be aware that it is merely 'cannon fodder' to serve Washington's hegemonic interests."

In the "ASEAN Perspective on the South China Sea" series, we collect wisdom and insights from former diplomats and scholars from ASEAN countries. Peter Chang (Chang), a research associate of the Institute of China Studies at the University of Malaya, told Global Times (GT) reporter Wang Zixuan that the territorial disputes in the South China Sea are complex, yet they can and should be resolved through diplomatic means.

This is the first piece of the series.

GT: How have extra-regional countries, especially the US, influenced the situation in the South China Sea? Will Washington really help Manila if a conflict breaks out between China and the Philippines?

Chang: Certain extra-regional powers have inserted themselves into the South China Sea dispute, ostensibly in the name of upholding the freedom of navigation. These interventions have undeniably added complexity to the continuing efforts to resolve peacefully the challenges in the South China Sea.

The Biden administration has reaffirmed its commitment to defending the Philippines. The Marcos administration appears convinced that the Americans will come to their assistance in the event of a conflict. However, given the ongoing Gaza crisis and the fluctuating US support for the war in Ukraine, where American attention and resources are stretched thin, it remains uncertain whether the US has the political will to engage in yet another distant conflict on the opposite side of the globe.

GT: You once mentioned in the interview that "we've got to resolve it [the South China Sea issue] diplomatically, that is the only way." However, some scholars think that the Philippines is adopting "microphone diplomacy" on the South China Sea issue. What's your take on this? How should we work together to ensure the situation is under control through diplomacy?

Chang:…Sure, competing for and claiming territory is a source of divisions, but there are also shared goals that bind us together, such as our mutual desire for social-economic growth. It is crucial we set aside our differences and concentrate on nurturing these common aspirations, fostering economic development for the greater good of our peoples.

Without question, open hostilities between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea will have a similarly disastrous impact on countries in Southeast Asia, and beyond. 

GT: …Some have said that the Philippines' current stance on the South China Sea issue goes against the principles and interests of ASEAN. What's your view?

Chang: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is guided by the principle of ASEAN centrality, which asserts that ASEAN should play a leading role in addressing issues pertaining to the Southeast Asian region.

The present strife between China and the Philippines, exacerbated by US instigation, poses the risk of entangling ASEAN in a proxy war between the US and China. If unchecked, this conflict threatens to undermine ASEAN centrality and relegate ASEAN to a mere pawn on someone else's geopolitical chessboard.

The ongoing confrontation also jeopardizes another core principle - ASEAN neutrality, wherein countries in Southeast Asia aim to maintain open ties with all nations, including both China and the US. The current standoff, with US support for the Philippines against China, has the potential to compel certain ASEAN member states to take sides, to the detriment of the broader well-being of the region.

GT: What lessons should the countries in the South China Sea learn from the wars in the Middle East and Europe? 

Chang: The most important lesson to learn is that we should avoid war at all costs. What's happening with the proxy war in Ukraine, as well as the conflicts in Gaza and in the Red Sea, are devastating. If there's anything we in Asia should be mindful of, it is that these conflicts ought to be resolved peacefully and diplomatically. There must be a way in which we can compromise. 

We should avoid military confrontation at all costs, because it will be a lose-lose situation for everyone if there is an open conflict. If I get the chance, I will tell my Filipino friends that it will be terrible for us to get into the situation that we see right now in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Although the phrasing and statements with regards to Gaza is a bit libby, the larger point still stands.

In more uplifting news…

VIENTIANE/BEIJING (Bernama): China is working with Asean nations for the early conclusion of the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea, with the second reading of the COC completed and now into third reading.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi who said this also gave assurance that the South China Sea would remain a "sea of peace and cooperation".

"The most important experience we have drawn is that we must adhere to two principles. First, differences should be properly managed and resolved through dialogues and consultations or negotiations between states directly involved. "Second, peace at the sea should be upheld by China and Asean countries by working together. These are also the core principles in the declaration in the conduct of parties in the South China Sea signed in 2002," Wang told a media conference Thursday.

He noted that China has been exercising a high degree of restraint on maritime disputes. "We maintain that parties should find solutions that are acceptable to each other and to all by working on the spirit of good neighbours and friendship and on the basis of respecting historical and legal facts. But abuse in such good faith will not be allowed," he said. He also urged "certain countries" outside the region not to make provocations, take sides or stir up troubles and problems in the South China Sea.

The opinion piece was by some “think tankie” with George W Bush in the name.

It basically complained that the Malaysian PM statements about how the West has some “China phobia” and how Malaysia doesn’t subscribe to such lose-lose scenarios, undermines ASEAN centrality because it is safeguarding it’s own economic interests instead of the interests of ASEAN lol

Yeah what is undermining ASEAN centrality is for an ASEAN member to state that we shouldn’t quarrel with a large economic powerhouse right beside our doorstep but not when Singapore/Philippines/Thailand hosts US military bases and/or frequently participates in US military exercises. Especially now with the Philippines’ intentional provocations against China (with encouragement from the US) and undermining actual peace and stability in the region.

Unsure how westerners can convince themselves into thinking that ASEAN centrality somehow includes security arrangements with AUKUS, India and EU to safeguard “freedom of navigation” when their involvement in the region had lead to multiple genocides, instability and warfare!

That will surely ensure ASEAN centrality and not divide the region into camps to the detriment of ASEAN centrality in the first place.

MANILA — The Philippines has been striking new defense agreements with other countries at a rapid clip, seeking to build what officials here call a “network of alliances” that could deter Chinese aggression in disputed waters.

The Philippines has signed or entered discussions over new security agreements with at least 18 countries since a Chinese coast guard vessel flashed a military-grade laser at a Philippine coast guard ship in the South China Sea last year, according to the Philippine Defense Department.

While the deepening Philippine alliance with the United States — which includes granting the U.S. military expanded access to Philippine military bases — has drawn much attention, Manila’s security campaign goes beyond Washington. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. made nearly a dozen overseas visits in 2023, many to seek security assistance and military equipment. This year, his schedule includes delivering a rare address before the Australian Parliament as well as the keynote speech at Asia’s premier defense summit, the Shangri-La Dialogue, in Singapore.

Since 2022, the Philippines has inked new defense agreements with the European Union, India and Britain. Japan, Canada and France are looking at signing visiting-forces agreements with the Philippines, which would allow those countries to send troops to Philippine bases, according to their embassies.

If adopted, these agreements would give the Philippines one of the most robust security networks in Asia, expanding the global stakes in the rising tensions over the South China Sea, Philippine officials say. “Given that we are the underdog, we leverage our relationships with other countries,” said Jonathan Malaya, assistant director of the country’s National Security Council. “Our network of alliances is critical.”

Me when I willingly sell my country to be occupied by foreign forces.

China claims much of the South China Sea, part of the Pacific Ocean that is bounded by China, Taiwan, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei. In recent years, China has stepped up its presence in these waters, building artificial islands with military infrastructure such as radar domes and runways.

They always ignore that there have been instances and disputes between ASEAN member states as-well in the SCS. This narrative of David vs Goliath is completely false.

Off the coast of the Philippines, Chinese ships have swarmed Philippine vessels and ignored appeals by Philippine officials to stop their aggression. Earlier this week, a Chinese coast guard ship fired water cannons at a Philippine coast guard vessel, shattering a windscreen and injuring four personnel, Philippine authorities said.

Evil China blasts our troops with high-tech pressurized water that pierces through the human skull in an instant 🤬

Last year, Marcos’s administration responded with what it called a policy of “assertive transparency,” broadcasting videos of aggressive Chinese actions at sea. But in recent interviews, top officials said the country needs more than a publicity campaign to defend its sovereignty.

Sovereignty of what exactly? The choice to be occupied by the US of A?

China has previously accused the Philippines and the United States of fueling tension in the South China Sea. Asked by reporters last year about joint air and maritime patrols between the Philippine and U.S. forces that launched in November, Wu Qian, a spokesperson for China’s Defense Ministry, said Washington had “instigated and emboldened the Philippine side to infringe upon China’s sovereignty.”

More recently, Ji Lingpeng, spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Manila, said that “bringing in outside forces and forming ‘small circles’ will not help resolve disputes in the South China Sea, but only complicate the regional situation [and] undermine regional peace and stability.”

Philippine officials disagree, saying their country is standing up for its sovereignty, not acting on behalf of Washington. And with a third of the world’s shipping passing through South China Sea, diplomats in Manila say many countries — not just the United States — have good reason to deter Chinese aggression.

Literally only the Philippines and the West “have good reason to deter Chinese aggression” it seems.

If other nations don’t defend international law, the “right of might” wins, Luc Véron, the European Union’s ambassador to the Philippines, said in an interview. “We cannot accept that our freedom of navigation in South China Sea will be impeded … by any players,” he added. In July, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made the first state visit by an E.U. leader to Manila in nearly 60 years, vowing to increase maritime security cooperation with the Philippines. “Security in Europe and security in the Indo-Pacific is indivisible,” she said.

Lol. Euros need to fuck off

Japan is negotiating a reciprocal access agreement with the Philippines that would allow the militaries of both countries to conduct joint training and exercises, similar to the Visiting Forces Agreement that the Philippines has with the United States. Diplomats from Canada and France said their countries are considering similar arrangements.

Crazy that military co-operation with the imperial power that once terrorised your populace is allowed. You are literally being doubly cucked and it’s sad to see.

Vietnam, which also borders the South China Sea, last month signed a series of new agreements with the Marcos administration, including the establishment of a hotline for maritime affairs and a memorandum of understanding on encounters with one another in the South China Sea. “Both countries very clearly recognize that the primary threat to their national sovereignty does not lie in each other, but to the north,” said Ray Powell, SeaLight director at the Stanford University Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation.

Uh… still coping that Vietnam will ally with the USA I see.

The Philippines is also building up its military arsenal with foreign help. India is scheduled to deliver the first of three batteries of supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines this year, part of a $375 million contract. The Czech Republic, Germany, Italy and Sweden have offered to supply drones and submarines, while the United States, on top of supporting the Philippine military’s modernization efforts, has provided $120 million annually in grant funding to the country’s security forces, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

The weapons must flow.

“The ultimate goal is for credible defense,” said Malaya, the security official. Marcos is the son of a former Philippine dictator once considered a pariah in international politics. But his efforts to push back against Chinese territorial intrusions have won him new popularity among leaders wary of Beijing’s growing ambitions, said Dindo Manhit, president of the Manila-based think tank Stratbase ADR Institute. “Why will all these countries visit this small [Southeast Asian] country being led by the son of a dictator?” Manhit said. “Simply because he said he will assert our rights.”

Stratbase ADR Institute Owned by some CSO liberal connected to other CSOs which are all of a bourgeois class character.

I would comb through each and every CSO but some interesting ones are “…the establishment of the U.S. – Philippines Strategic Initiative (USPI)… He is also an advisor to the Board of Asia Society Philippines”

Westerners and their comprador liberals really just justified being ruled by dynastic dictators. So much for freedom and democracy.

Marcos’s courtship of security partners marks a sharp shift from his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, who publicly “realigned” himself with China during his six-year term. Duterte took offense when world leaders criticized his war on drugs for violating human rights and civil liberties, and at various points threatened to abrogate the Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States and to expel European diplomats. Although Duterte’s term has ended, his daughter is Marcos’s vice president. Tension between the families has risen, and in January, the two presidents publicly traded barbs, accusing one another of being addicted to drugs. If the Duterte family returns to power, the Philippines could rescind security commitments or swing back to a more pro-China foreign policy, political analysts say.

Thailand is planning to collaborate with Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Malaysia, as well as hold talks with the European Union (EU) to launch reciprocal free-visa entries.

Prommin Lertsuridej, the PM’s secretary-general, said on Monday that Thailand will seek support from the neighbouring countries to establish an agreement allowing tourists to travel freely among the five ASEAN nations after obtaining an entry visa for any of them.

This is unlike the neocolonial arrangement of the Eurozone, because ASEAN is based while EU is cringe.

In 2023, despite ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the South China Sea hotspot continued to grab international attention with new developments on the ground. The so-called “grey zone” activities were more commonly observed. Most notably, there were some incidents between China and ASEAN member states, especially the Philippines in Spratly Islands.

Philippines President Marcos Jr. spoke about China’s continuous building of military bases in the disputed territories, saying “The situation has become direr than it was before”. Many worry these increasingly tense hostilities could escalate into a broader conflict.

...According to the statement issued by Laos Foreign Ministry after AMM Retreat, ASEAN Foreign Ministers “welcomed the progress achieved so far in the ongoing negotiations on the COC” and “looked forward to the early conclusion of an effective and substantive COC that is in accordance with international law, including the UNCLOS-1982”.

...It remains to be seen how fast the COC process could progress and how effectively the new document could restrain the actions of claimant parties. Many regional experts and scholars said that the COC negotiation is essentially a process in which all parties gradually enhance mutual trust through the accumulation of consensus, and only when this process is kept running well can a truly effective COC be reached.

To promote the negotiation to achieve more results as soon as possible, ASEAN countries and China still need to achieve more a consensus on certain issues.

China has warned the Philippines against “playing with fire” amid reports that Manila plans to bolster its military deployment on strategically important islands it controls near Taiwan.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on Thursday reiterated Beijing’s position that Taiwan was “at the centre of China’s core interests and represents an insurmountable red line and bottom line”.

The involvement of the US in the South China Sea using the Philippines is complicating the peaceful settlement of disputes. I support the Chinese government's position that parties must uphold direct negotiations and consultations and no other parties are to interfere in the process.

I oppose the current approach of the Philippine government under President Marcos, which is excessively involving the US in not only the South China Sea, but also in sensitive issues, like the Taiwan question. For example, the president has allowed the expansion of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) that is sensitive to our close neighbor China.

...There is a very strong nationalism of Filipinos on the issue of the South China Sea, but I think the public is being misled on the real issue in this region, because the Philippines is being controlled by Western media, and even our newspapers are articulating a lot of the Western perspectives..