"dont let history repeat itself"
Bruh you are 500 miles off of China and they havent colonized you once in 3000 years. Meanwhile you got got multiple times by western colonial empires from the otherside of the globe. The only history repeating itself is yall being colonized by the US, this time willingly
Vietnam is in a difficult position and is dependent on good economic relations with the imperial core
Eh i dont think thats an excuse tbh. Bunch of SEA nations, especially with large muslim minorities or majorities have at the very least taken a stong and loud pro-palestinian stance, even if its surface level and trade continues to go as is. Yeah they got some pressure from the west but nothing too dangerous. Vietnam could afford to have a better position on the issue than it does, comfortably. Cutting back from their way to extensive military cooparation and trade with Israel for example that even in nominal figures is one of the most extensive globably. Lib countries have done so , even performatively.
The real issue is ,and it often goes unnoticed, that Vietnam got into the capitalist,pro west and liberal brainrot comfortably more so than China during their oppening up, and hasnt really had a "course correction" like the Xi era has been for China. Of course they had huge issues to content and very hostile conditions after the Vietnam war but the current situation is what it is. Its seems weird but at the street level as well as in various official circles there is less pronounced distaste towards the western led neoliberal world order then in most of their non socialist neighbours. Free market good, foreign investment good , bamboo diplomacy good has been drilled a little to deep in most political and public life even if it started as pragmatic and controled choices by the communist party and it basicaly has put dogmatic blinders of the wrong ideology in a lot of their decision making . China had and still has this problem as well. Even the changes under Xi and the new cold war still havent managed to shake it off in a satisfactory degree. Regarding Israel there is a prominent view in liberal and west friendly market loving circles, that arent an unimportant force in Vietnamese politics and party, that its a enterprenaur nation that knows to get rich and technologicaly advanced and strong despite their size so there is a dumbass soft-admiration towards it
To end on a positive note tho, last i heard there has been an ongoing power stuggle inside the party and the less american/liberal friendly wing has been coming out on top and cleaning house. It wont cause some noticable shift, at least not one that they wanna show since America already is buying that Vietnam is an ally or whatever but it seems like there wont be a rightwing, neoliberal slide for the next decade at least there and there probably be more China intergration
Greek results for the Euro-elections are both more of the same and somewhat unique.
On the communist side (there actualy being one is already somewhat unique) KKE ,love it or hate it (or more likely be somewhere in between), continued their steady rise hitting 9.3% (vs 7.5% in the parliamentary/presidential elections) last year and basicaly double the ~5% that they were stuck at over last decade. Yeah they arent on the forefront on LGBT issues to say it lightly (tho still not to be lumped with patsocs culture warriorism, spewing hate or Russian communist party levels of social conservativism) and yeah they weirdly have almost leftcom/maoist positions regarding the Russia-Ukraine war and China. But they have survived the waves of eurocommunism, opportunism,reformism, gladio and anti-communism that have swept through the European communist and socialist scene in the last 50 years and stand today, despite their issues, as arguably the most popular and active hardline ML party in "western democracies".
On the "center-left" /socdem side more of the same. Syriza after having eaten shit and imploded in the last 1-2 years continues to stay in useless territory and got ~15%. Tsipras resigned last year and then they literaly imported some better looking Pete Buttigieg - Beto O'Rourke dude from the US but with worse politics (reaganite, campaigned for Biden in 2008) and made him the leader. Like look at this . That caused some demsocs to split and form a new party "New Left" that got 2% or smth. PASOK continues to do nothing after being Pasokified and sits at like 11-12%. Sad to see since they had a kinda cool socdem regime aura in the 70s and 80s. Varoufakis continues enjoying his internationalist demsoc larp party at ~2.5% outside of parliament.I dont hate him or anything but like 90% of Greece does ,mostly unfairly tbh, but good luck with that.
Reminder that Greece also has an active and well organized anarchist and communist sphere outside of KKE and KKE aligned orgs and unions that doesnt care or doesnt do much in elections either but is also a factor in the relative balance of politics
On the far right there has been some rise but im convinced its much less so overall compared to most of Europe. The voter/supporter pool for far right, hard-nationalist/conservative parties has been at 15-20% for a decade now. Its just that there hasnt been a unified movement or party to exploit that and coalesce that support around them and even break through. Far right is actualy quite fractured in Greece with multiple ultra orthodox, alt right grifters or neonazi parties capturing 1-5% of the votes each and the rulling New Democracy party (not Maoist sadly, 80% Macron - 20% Le Pen) also capturing some % of the fascist base. And they cant as of now act together or have coherent plans and coalitions. In these elections a far right party Greek Solution (that despite its name isnt really commited golden dawn ultra-nazi as much as grifter-orthodox fascists) did managed to rise at 9.3% , matching KKE, but i believe its mostly due to circumstance. They were at 4.5% in last years elections and another fascist party that got 4.5% as well was banned from running now because of connections/being a continuation to Golden Dawn. So they got a bunch of those votes and some ultra nationalists moved from New Democracy to them as well. Overall i still see it as yet another reconfiguration of the existing far right base that just moves to and from different parties as if they are communicating vessells for the better part of a decade now and especially after golden dawn's ban. For example a completely evangelical tier orthodox brainworms party also got 3% and some alt right grifter chick run on incel stuff and being somewhat hot and also got 3%. These parties wont exist in 5 years time and others will have taken their place. Lastly i have to note that in the north part of Greece , Macedonia etc, far right is seeing a surge and the communist party despite also gaining, is being left behind. Thats mostly a function of the whole North Macedonia name debacle that has left many, many Greek nationalists there absolutely seething and maybe something of a movement may be forming.
Lastly the rulling party , New Democracy, got ~29%. A notable drop from last years elections where it dominated with 40%. A lot of their base probably didnt care ,they are increasingly unpopular for sure and also like i said some of their far right and nationalist base moved towards smaller more hard line far right parties in this occassion since to protest against some of the Ukraine war support, Macedonia name stuff and Turkey dialogue stuff . They'll prbably be back tho
If the US stayed out of it Taiwan would surrender within a month of tight-ish embargo at the very best. Most liberal and independance hardliners would flee to the west, maybe hundreds of thousands but Taiwan would simply become a pre 2018 Hong Kong 1 country two systems situation for decades to come with maybe some protests here and there. They isnt the stomach for a Ukraine like resistance in Taiwan, no rabid ideological and ethnic hatred in most of the military and politics . Taiwanese wont do guirella fighting against China or anything of the short, thats a funny and silly idea
And Weibo is comfortably the most liberal chinese social media, or at least the one that you'll find the highest concentration of liberals depending on the topic
The SDP subotaged any revolutionary left activity they could for years leading up to 1918 which culminated with them allying with fascists to murder Rosa and Karl
The SPD voted overwhelmingly to enter the war in 1914 due to nationalism and giving in to imperial demands and pressure and excluded members for not voting for financing the war . The spartacists split from them because of that . Also made Ebert that supported the war councelor.
SPD formed a coalition in the early 20s explicitly to oppose the KPD. And another one in the late 20s...explicitly to opposed the KPD and the NSDAP (as a second thought).They put up posters calling the KPD equal to the NSDAP as early as 1929 . SPD Chairman Otto Wels declared at the Leipzig party convention in 1931 that “Bolshevism and fascism are brothers. They are both founded on violence and dictatorship, regardless of how socialist or radical they may appear.
Tthe SPD while in power and as the opposition made massive concessions to the right wing and never to the KPD. Pushed austerity, ordered and supported the construction dumbass battleships under fascist pressure and, ordered violent police suppression against a KPD protest against the NSDAP.
In 1929 the SPD used the police to attack pro-Communist protesters during the Berlin May Day demonstrations killing at least 32 people and wounding hundreds more.
In 1932 they allowed the Nazis to hold a march through the KPD stronghold despite warnings that rioting would be the result. When the Nazis were beaten back they sent in the Hamburg police against the KPD that ending up shooting 18 people
The SPD's 'lesser evil' politics ended up giving voters the ostensible choice between Hindenburg (a senile militarist) and Hitler, then its only anti nazi action was urging voters support the former who then went on and proceeded to appoint Hitler Chancellor.
It was the KPD calling for a united general strike in 1933, it was the SPD and SPD-led unions calling for restraint:
The Vcce-chair of the ADGB stated: “We want to reserve the general strike as a measure of last resort.” Leader Theodor Leipart added: “We want to emphasize that we are not in opposition to this government. However, that cannot and will not stop us from also representing the interests of the working class vis-à-vis this government. ‘Organization, not demonstration’ is our motto.”"
The KPD would have accomplished nothing by appeasing the SPD. They would have been told to stop fighting nazis in the streets. They would have been told to stop agitating against fascism. They would have been told to give up everything to the right wing in the idiotic hope that giving the right wing everything they wanted would slow the shift to the right.
A united front strategy never emerged. The SPD destroyed their party's credibility by voting to build a fucking battleship to appease the Nazis, and then promptly moving directly into austerity. They were in coalition until 1933 with the catholic centre party, the democratic party, the people's party, explicitly to oppose the "radical parties", including the communist party and the nazi party. I assume people can figure out which one of those they were better at and why that coalition collapsed entirely in 1933 when the Nazis began purging the SPD. The only resulting "widespread" cooperation from the SPD was when the leadership of the SPD side-lined their militias and were then arrested by the Nazis, so the militias finally moved over to cooperate with the KPD. The SPD was decapitated, and the KPD picked up the pieces to fight as long as they could.
The KPD could, certainly, have just folded up all of their ideals, kow-towed to the SPD who loudly and publicly loathed them and ordered violent suppression of them, and then been part of a coalition that steadfastly refused to in any material way oppose the NSDAP and pushed fascism taking over a couple of years down the road. The SPD could also not have fucking conceded every fucking step to the fascists every fucking second of their control of government or as the opposition.
But for the apologists of the left wing of capital, that sinking ship didn’t count, only the one the KPD went down with, the materially correct if strategically awkward theory of social fascism
They don't seem to be anywhere near the top, at least in the last decade. Dont know if it decreased even more or not
Sadly Vietnam seems to be..
Either way as for sanctions they pretty much never do that in their modern history, for better or worse. Doupt its gonna change now. At least in any overt way
To make @Kaplya@hexbear.net post bellow on Gorbachev even worse i remembered this gem of Gorby straight up selling the GDR out ,Mitterand going "bruh what the fuck are you doing, lets support Honecker?" and Gorby being so excited to push ahead with the reunification that even Thatcher being like "shouldnt we slow down a bit?"
On the eve of the famous negotiations in Arkhyz regarding the future of Germany, Gorbachev, through his assistant Chernyaev, contacted Helmut Kohl and began to lament: “I have nothing to feed the people, give three or four billion deutschmarks, and in return you will get everything you need in Arkhyz.” This phrase contains all of Gorbachev. He took loans from the West and was ready to pay for them not only with the integrity of the community of socialist countries, but also with the existence of his own country.
In addition to the negotiations between Gorbachev and Kohl in Arkhyz, in December 1989 the Soviet leader met with French President Mitterrand in Kyiv. Mitterrand invited Gorbachev to fly to Berlin together to support Honecker. Gorbachev’s reaction: “If you want to fly, fly!” But I won’t fly.” I also remember how Thatcher suggested to Gorbachev not to resolve the issue with Germany solely personally, but to create a commission on this matter that would include England, France and the USSR. Thatcher feared that as a result of Gorbachev’s unification, the western part of the country would swallow the eastern, and instead of a single German nation, there would be an “Ossie-Wessie” conflict. Gorbachev, in my presence, reacted to the Iron Lady’s proposal in this way: “I don’t want to wash the British and French’s dirty laundry, but I will support the unification of Germany.” This is how Moscow surrendered the GDR, Honecker, and all the East Germans.
I know for sure that at the negotiations in Arkhyz, Helmut Kohl asked Gorbachev whether Moscow intended to somehow help Erich Honecker, the SED and the entire socialist elite of the GDR. Kohl clearly thought that Moscow intended to help its German generals. But Gorbachev answered him: “These questions are your internal matter, and you know better how to deal with whom.”
But Gorbachev’s decision to “surrender” the GDR was not his personal one. The decision to “surrender” the GDR was suggested to him in June 1989 by George Bush, when the Gorbachev couple were in Washington. On the eve of this historical “clue,” US First Lady Barbara Bush “processed” Raisa Maksimovna “just in case.” These women worked in a well-coordinated tandem on the eve of the collapse of the USSR. In order for Gorbachev to commit another betrayal, one thing was needed: for “dear Barbara” and Raisa Maksimovna to put pressure on the painful ambitions of Mikhail Sergeevich, and he, from the consciousness of his own historical importance, swelled like a soap bubble. In such an inflated state, he received his Nobel Peace Prize in 1990. This was both payment for the betrayal of the socialist bloc, and an advance for the already planned and agreed collapse of the USSR
Смотрите оригинал материала на сайте "Совершенно секретно" : https://www.sovsekretno.ru/articles/banda-chetyryekh-i-gorbachyev/
@Kaplya@hexbear.net might be interested in this article since they often have noted that a big problem for China is its relatively weak Household consumption
https://asiatimes.com/2023/11/consumption-in-china-is-it-really-that-bad/
According to this perspective HH consumption in China is under-reported ,or more accuratly undercaclulated when comparing to numbers from other countries cause it uses different calculation methods, a soviet accountring approach that is, along with some other unique parameters tothe whole equation. And that if calculated in the same way as the HH consumption numbers of other countries China's household consumption as a % of GDP is actualy already in line or above its developed neighbours
Another thing i found that doesnt agree that Chinese HH consuption notably underperforms is that it has tracked the growth of GDP for since the GFC. Which is what would be healthy and expected. IMF data:
So while Chinese HH consumption has room to grow and is probably weak, maybe its already performing fine-ish enough that there isnt enough room to make China an internal circulation economy by boosting domestic consumption and there isnt enough internal consumption potential to absord its manufacturing and industrial capacity. And that the CPC itself cant really boost HH consumption significantly enough even if it tried its darnest
It could be based if it would be anti-finance Chinese youth but Weibo is a more liberal site comperatively and im pretty sure lot of these complaints are Tier 1 City white collar ppl who saw almost no wage increase this last year are getting a bit "squeezed" with the property sector deleveraging and property values dropping (especially in tier 1 cities) and stock not performing (the horror) and just want more "free market" and liberalism. Blue collar wages and rural/tier 2 and bellow wages are performing much better and those workers feel better about some prices dropping ,have much more to gain by the property sector course correction and dont give much shit about line going down
Even if China's demographic issues are as big as dumbass clickbait YT vids and reddit comments make it out to be that would still put China in the demographic position of SK a couple of decades ago. S. Korea quintupled industrial production between 1992-2010 and their productivity rose x6 while it's factory workforce dropped 25%. It's all about education, tech, and productivity. More important than the aggregate Chinese population is the technically proficient,college educated, Chinese population. That has grown 20-fold, or by 2,000%, in the past 40 years and will continue to grow due to the hundreds of millions of untapped rural population despite the decline in population.
So point is, economy is still growing. The plan has always been to create self-sustaining growth in exports to the Global South with BRI infrastructure + productivity leap at home. Both of those aspects show great success. Exports and imports to the GS are expanding and the entire SEA is brought in the sphere of Chinese digital economy. The "greater China" economy includes another billion people in SE and Central Asia.China is getting 2x to 8x productivity leaps with AI/5G apps in industry/mining/logistics.
And all that is assuming China cant and will not tackle demographic issues in any other manners
Funny to remember how widespread making fun of the "Soviet Gerontocracy" was in the 70s and 80s in western media and politics. This is so so so much worse. Suslov, Brezhnev and Chernenko at their worst and most decrepit state were monsters of vitality and intellect compared to what we are seeing from Amerikkka these days.
You can put renal failure induced encephalopathy Andropov on the debate stage 5 minutes before he died and Biden would still seem barely sentient comperatively