inspectorst

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[–] inspectorst@feddit.uk 5 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Non-paywall link: https://archive.is/ZcfbY

The survey, conducted for the Financial Times and the University of Michigan Ross School of Business, is the first monthly poll to show the Democratic presidential candidate leading Trump on the economy since it began tracking voter sentiment on the issue nearly a year ago.

Although 41 per cent of Americans still trust the former president more on economic issues — unchanged from the two previous monthly polls — the survey found 42 per cent of voters believe Harris would be better at handling the economy. That is a 7 percentage point increase compared to Biden’s numbers last month.

[–] inspectorst@feddit.uk 1 points 1 month ago

The claim that the criminal justice system is generally biased against white people is baseless. It is black Britons, not white ones, who are most likely to be victims of discriminatory policing: in 2021 to 2022 they were 2.4 times more likely to be arrested than white people and 3.5 times more likely to be victims of police violence.

Why, then, is the myth of “two-tier” policing spreading? Many Britons feel let down by the police—less than half think their local force is doing a good or excellent job, down from 63% a decade ago. Far-right influencers are happy to exploit that feeling. Selective presentation of evidence, vitriolic argument and the shareability of memes buoy their claims on social media and messaging apps. Mainstream politicians and media outlets who echo the far right’s language lend their claims legitimacy. Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, a populist right-wing party, has spoken of two-tier policing, as has Suella Braverman, a Conservative former home secretary. Ill-informed interventions by the likes of Mr Musk only amplify the idea.

[–] inspectorst@feddit.uk 10 points 1 month ago

But when experts viewed clips from 2024 and compared them to clips from 2017, they noted that Trump’s speech included more short sentences, a confused order of words, repetition and extended digressions. The causes could vary, some worse than others, including mood changes, trying to win over a certain group of people, natural aging or it could be the start of a cognitive condition such as Alzheimer’s disease, the experts said.

In an analysis for STAT, fellow University of Texas social psychologist James Pennebaker reviewed transcripts of interviews with Trump from 2015 until 2024. He found a major rise in “all-or-nothing thinking” which is signified by the use of words such as “completely,” “never” and “always.”

That trend could indicate depression, Pennebaker said, which also connects to his use of fewer positive words than earlier, and also his many references to negative emotions following his departure from the White House.

A rise in all-or-nothing thinking is connected to cognitive decline. Pennebaker told STAT that Biden’s all-or-nothing thinking has also increased.

Pennebaker noted that a linguistic metric of analytic thinking reveals that Trump’s levels of complexity are remarkably low – most presidential candidates range between 60 and 70 in the metric, while Trump ranges from 10 to 24, something Pennebaker called “staggering.”

[–] inspectorst@feddit.uk 2 points 1 month ago

Not sure if people are following the betting markets but I can see Kamala is now the narrow favourite. On Betfair, the mid-odds pricing equates to a 51% probability for Kamala vs 46% for Trump. That compares to Trump's win probability peaking just above 70% in the immediate aftermath of the debate.

[–] inspectorst@feddit.uk 8 points 1 month ago (1 children)

The Harris campaign seem to be enjoying themselves!

[–] inspectorst@feddit.uk 2 points 1 month ago (1 children)

What I find so dumb about naming children Khaleesi is that:

a) It's not the name of a character anyway. Apparently a lot of casual fans thought Dany's actual name was Khaleesi because several other characters often addressed her by her title. So there's a good chance that either these parents are casual fans who nonetheless then misnamed their child after a character, or they are serious fans who named their child in a way that will lead other people to infer her parents were casual fans. (Nothing wrong with being a casual fan, but I'd find it a bit dumb to name my child after an IP that I was only loosely into...)

b) The child is six years old. The final episode aired only five years ago. That means they named their child before Dany's story had even concluded. George RR Martin had been dropping hints throughout the book series that Dany might or might not end up as a genocidal mad queen like her father (the TV show had laid the groundwork for this less effectively, which is in part why the abruptness of her turn was so unpopular) and I find it bizarre that a parent would name a kid after a character who might still end up as a murderous tyrant

I think about the amount of thought and research that many of my friends have conducted when naming their children (including looking up famous real and fictional people with that name, doing word associations, etc). Then these guys come along and just say 'fuck it, let's just call her after that blonde girl off TV, Khaleesi I think?'

[–] inspectorst@feddit.uk 32 points 1 month ago

He didn't 'appear' to justify the rioting.

He literally said 'of course it’s politically justified!' There's no ambiguity here.

[–] inspectorst@feddit.uk 2 points 1 month ago

Repeated and urgent counsel that far-right extremists were exploiting gaps in the law to foment violence on social media had been ignored while top-rank politicians over a number of administrations sought to gain advantage by waging culture wars, Khan said, in a damning intervention.

“The writing was clearly on the wall for some time,” Khan told the Guardian. “All my reports have shown, in a nutshell that, firstly, these extremist and cohesion threats are worsening; secondly, that our country is woefully unprepared. We’ve got a gap in our legislation which is allowing these extremists to operate with impunity.

[–] inspectorst@feddit.uk 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I think the online bombardment is about laying the groundwork. If every day you're getting a torrent of fake news in your feed demonising immigrants and refugees to an exceptional degree and telling you that mainstream politicians and media are hiding these truths from you, it gradually warps your worldview until you're pliable to join in when your mate from work starts ranting about Muslims and then another guy down the pub who just got out of prison says he's going to a 'protest' about some incident involving an immigrant (fake news, but you don't know that) that popped up on all your Twitter feeds and he says the media aren't covering.

I've seen exactly the same happen with people I know in relation to Israel and Palestine - people who have always felt a reasonable and human sympathy for the Palestinians' awful plight then joining community WhatsApp groups, following certain Twitter accounts, and so on until six months later they're suddenly weirdly aware of which public figures or their partners are Jewish and you notice them using the word 'Zionist' in everyday speech (without, I suspect, actually knowing what one is) - all without them realising they're getting slowly radicalised.

 

Okay, something the younger ones amongst you might not he conscious of. For wonkish political nerds in the UK of a certain age (I think roughly ranging from older millennials in their late-30s to the Cameron/Osborne/Clegg/Miliband generation in their mid-50s) and regardless of their political party affiliation (I've found this equally true of Labour, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats), probably the piece of popular culture that has most influenced how they think about the 'romance' of politics is Aaron Sorkin's The West Wing, which aired in the late 1990s and early 2000s. It's brilliant TV and anyone who hasn't seen it should watch it.

Sunak is a very wonkish political nerd in that age bracket. He's also someone with a particular relationship and affiliation with the United States. I would guess he is almost certainly a West Wing fan.

I've been thinking about The West Wing lately because of an article Sorkin wrote for the NYT, comparing the scenario around Biden and the 'will he/won't he' be the Democratic presidential candidate to his season two finale when President Bartlet - who has been concealing from the public that he suffered from multiple scelerosis - disclosed his illness and then, under huge political pressure not to stand for re-election due to his condition, dramatically changed his mind at the last minute and revealed he would.

The ending scene of Bartlet heading to the press conference to the soundtrack of Dire Straits is a top 5 moment for any fan of the series. It's tipping it down with rain and Bartlet shows up, drenched, walks out in front of the world's media like a heroic figure battling the very elements themselves, and commences his re-election campaign.

I hadn't made the link before but, now that I think about, I am certain that is exactly how Sunak and his advisors thought he was going to look on the TV news that night! We all spent all that time joking about how this man who claimed to have 'a plan' couldn't even rustle up an umbrella in a rainstorm - but the lack of an umbrella was deliberate! Oh dear god, the poor man thought that was his Jed Bartlet moment!

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