If you’ve been reading my posts about my time at university you may be familiar that I am to present a very short seminar for my Political Science class. We were all assigned an article from a book by my professor and the article I got was by John J. Mearsheimer. What I have to do for the seminar is talk about what ideology the author of thee article has (Mearsheimer is a realist) and summarize the article (which I have done), then I have to do a critical assessment discussing the strengths and weaknesses of his argument. As of now I’m a little stuck on the assessment part, I know some of what he says is accurate when comparing it to actions taken recently by nations he mentions, but others I’m not so sure. I wont share the full article but I can give you my summarization of it (this will be the script I use when presenting, though it will be edited further):
China’s Unpeaceful Rise
John J. Mearsheimer
The author of this article is John J. Mearsheimer, and he is a Realist. He starts off the piece answering his own question “will China rise peacefully?” Absolutely not. He claims his theory of international politics is the best way to explain why that is — “the mightiest states attempt to establish hegemony in their region of the world while making sure that no rival great power dominates another region.” The main antagonist to China will be the United States.
The Contest for Power
The international system has three characteristics: all states operate in anarchy, all the great powers must have destructive military capabilities, and finally you cannot trust one another because you never know what their true intentions are (current and future). Under a system like this states are constantly uncertain of each other and thus fearful which leads to the conclusion that the best way to survive under these conditions is to become as powerful as possible, hopefully the MOST powerful. Establish a hegemony. Like how the United States has a regional hegemony in the western hemisphere. When one state dominates a region they will seek to prevent others from duplicating their results in another.
The American Hegemon
Over the next 115 years since its independence, American policy makers would work incredibly hard to make it a regional hegemon. “Manifest Destiny” and many wars were fought to make this a reality. He quotes Senator Henry Cabot Lodge who says the United States had a “record of conquest, colonization, and territorial expansion unequalled by a people in the nineteenth century.” So much so that by 1898 they had effectively pushed out the European powers. By becoming a regional hegemon that meant they would have to prevent other nations from doing the same on another continent. Other “formidable foes” cropped up in which the United States worked very hard to dismantle: Imperial Germany, Imperial Japan, Nazi Germany, and the Soviet Union. After their defeat in WWII American policy prevented Germany and Japan from having strong militaries, and the Cold War proved the US would never tolerate competition. With how the United States behaved towards the Soviet Union during the Cold War, this will most likely be repeated towards China in the near future. With all these talks about Cold War 2 and Taiwan I have little doubt that this isn’t the case.
Predicting China’s Future
He believes that China will attempt to establish its own hegemony unchallenged like the United States has done in the Western hemisphere, mainly going head to head with Russia and Japan. Unlike the US, China most likely will not use military power to do this, though it’s not an impossible scenario. He believes that the only way China will get Taiwan back is through regional hegemony. China will push the US out of Asia, making reference to when the US pushed Europe way back when. So China will probably come up with their own “Monroe Doctrine” like Japan did in the 30s. Like how the US appreciates a militarily weak Canada and Mexico, China will want the same for Russia and Japan. No self respecting superpower would ever allow others in its vicinity. American policy makers are enraged when foreign militaries are sent into the western hemisphere, why would China afford the US with any amount of grace? They wont, US military presence in Asia will not be tolerated. In the end China will just imitate the US.
Trouble Ahead
Based on America’s track record it is obvious what the reaction will be towards China if it tries to establish a hegemony in Asia, no “peer competitors” will be tolerated. The only hegemony that is allowed to exist is the United States, and therefore China must be contained and weakened. As said before, China will be treated as the Soviet Union was.
Neighbouring nations will also join the US in preventing China’s regional rise, this includes: India, Japan, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, and Vietnam.
Taiwan will be used as a pawn to better control China and gain the upper hand, which will cause further security issues between Beijing and Washington.
He ends his article with this: “The picture I have painted of what is likely to happen if China continues its rise is not a pretty one. I actually find it categorically depressing and wish that I could tell a more optimistic story about the future. But the fact is that international politics is a nasty and dangerous business, and no amount of goodwill can ameliorate the intense security competition that sets in when an aspiring hege-mon appears in Eurasia. That is the tragedy of great power politics.”
I will compile this information into PowerPoint slides, obviously trimmed down, and speak for around 10 minutes. Half dedicated to summary hike the last bit has to be critical assessment: strengths and weaknesses. So far I know with rising tensions in Taiwan with the US and Canada sending ships over as provocation that fits in as a strength, the Cold War references are also a strength as many have been talking about it (are there any actions that reflect the past? As in, is what the US is doing now with China also similar to actions taken against the Soviet Union?). I have to tread lightly here, as even though I can be comfortable expressing myself to my professor I cannot do the same in front of my classmates, they are a lot more hostile and I don’t want to be yelled at or ridiculed (I’m not strong enough yet lol). One criticism I feel I could make against his article is how China will behave, he says China will be the same as the US but I’m not so sure about that. Theres also the reference to how other Asian countries will follow the US in muzzling China but I don’t believe Russia is completely interested in that considering how their trading and cooperation is going right now. Is there anything about Chinese foreign policy I could make reference to? Any little bit helps, hopefully my summary is good enough but if you need more information I can go back to the article and write some more!
