Climate Crisis, Biosphere & Societal Collapse

Seems this highly relevant piece was not yet posted here.

An excellent and thorough summary. Mostly bad news but not all.

Archived

[...]

Q. But do you think this is a form of McCarthyism?

A. That depends on what you mean by McCarthyism. Is there a disregard for reality and facts? Is there a call to accuse people, to pit people against each other? Yes, there’s polarization. And polarization is really dangerous. But I think the important thing is that, centuries ago, we had a fight over facts and science. And now, we have a new fight in which we must restore credit to science.

We’re in a difficult situation, fighting against red herrings, against straw men... I had a colleague in the United States Senate named Daniel Patrick Moynihan. He was a great senator from New York and he said that everyone has a right to their own opinion, but not their own facts.

Q. And how can the world recover from these damaging U.S. actions toward research?

A. We will recover if people understand their own empowerment. France, Germany, [Europe overall] and more countries have the capacity to conduct science and increase investment. And that’s going to have to happen. It’s not unlike the debate over European defense needs in the context of Ukraine; [the EU has] decided to spend more.

[...]

archived (Wayback Machine)

• A recent study reveals that over a fifth of the world's ocean has darkened in the last two decades, reducing the surface layers of the sea that receive light, known as photic zones, and where most marine life exists.
• The darkening is attributed to factors like increased rainfall, agricultural runoff, harmful algal blooms, and climate change, with significant changes observed near the poles, the Gulf Stream, and the Baltic Sea.
• Reduced photic zones may force marine animals closer to the surface, increasing competition for resources and potentially altering the entire marine ecosystem, according to Tim Smyth of Plymouth Marine Laboratory.
• Changes in the ocean's photic zones could impact human activities such as recreation, transport, and food supply, potentially affecting the availability of prey and driving predators closer to shore.
• Researchers used data from NASA’s Ocean Color Web satellite and developed an algorithm to measure light in seawater, finding that over 9% of the ocean saw its lit zones reduced by more than 50 meters.

The photic zone, also known as the euphotic zone or sunlight zone, is the upper layer of a body of water that receives enough sunlight for photosynthesis, typically extending to about 200 meters deep. This zone is crucial for marine life, as it supports the majority of aquatic organisms, including phytoplankton, which are essential for oxygen production and the ocean's food web.

On a walk near his house, with views of the ocean, Mark Ellis speaks with urgency about how the utility business—the industry that long employed him—is harming the public with unsustainable rate increases.

He keeps coming back to the same point: The complexity of utility regulation is obscuring a transfer of wealth from the general public to shareholders on a vast scale.

He’s far from the first person to say this. But he’s getting attention to a degree others haven’t, thanks to the clarity of his message and his status as a former utility insider. He’s in the early stages of becoming an activist.

Ellis’ adversaries should know what they’re up against. He is a financial analyst, with degrees from Harvard and MIT, and he is a wrestler, with experience on the mat as recently as two years ago, when he was competing in his age division in national tournaments.

“I don’t like bullies,” he said. “I feel like there’s a lot of bullying going on with utilities. People need to stand up to the bully.”

U.S. households have seen their electricity prices increase by an average of 25 percent from 2020 to 2024, which exceeds the rate of inflation, according to the Energy Information Administration.

When electricity is unaffordable, the transition away from fossil fuels becomes expensive to the point that it stretches feasibility; ideas such as electrifying home heating and using electricity to power vehicles make less sense in purely financial terms.

The evidence against the Drax power station is damning, yet the government wants to continue its massive public funding, says campaigner Dale Vince

How green is this? We pay billions of pounds to cut down ancient forests in the US and Canada, ship the wood across the Atlantic in diesel tankers, then burn it in a Yorkshire-based power station.

Welcome to the scandal of Drax, where Britain’s biggest polluter gets to play climate hero. [...]

Chapters:

0:00 I. Introduction

1:41 II. What is Necropolitics?

6:45 III. Colonialism and Zombification

9:15 IV. Algorithms and Digital Overseers

14:06 V. Systems and Necropolitical Violence

17:28 VI. Death Driven Feedback Loops

Some parts of India have been forced to shut down schools amid the country's declining birth rates.

Economist Sanjeev Sanyal, who was previously the principal economic adviser in India's finance ministry and a member of the Economic Advisory Council to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has spoken about this happening and called for it to occur "more routinely."

"Our population is only growing now because we are living longer, we are not having enough babies," he told the Indian financial newspaper Mint on Monday. "So our problem is already the case that in parts of the country we have to shut down schools."

India is one of the many countries around the world that is struggling with an aging population, meaning that people will continue to live longer while fertility rates fall.

The nation, the most populous country on Earth, had a fertility rate of 2 (the average number of children a woman has) in 2023, the most recent year for which the World Bank has fertility data. The rate has fallen drastically from 1950, when it was 5.7.

The world’s most productive agricultural regions face the greatest losses from climate change, with major farming areas in wealthy nations potentially losing as much as 40% of their maize and wheat production this century, a comprehensive new study has found.

In their analysis of more than 12,000 regions across 55 countries, a team of researchers from top U.S. and international institutions found that for every 1°C increase in global temperature, global food production could decline by approximately 120 calories per person per day—equivalent to 4.4% of current daily consumption.

The study, published in Nature, reveals that even when so-called climate adaptation strategies are undertaken, “breadbasket” regions are particularly vulnerable, and will face substantial reductions in the production of most key food crops, presenting a concerning outlook for global food security.

But if you look at this year's update, things are all moving in the wrong direction."

Sudan's war is in strategic stalemate. Each side stakes its hopes on a new offensive, a new delivery of weapons, a new political alliance, but neither can gain a decisive advantage.

The losers are the Sudanese people. Every month there are more who are hungry, displaced, despairing.

Month after month of blockade, bombardment and ground attacks have created famine among the residents, with the people of the displaced camp of Zamzam worst-hit.

The RSF and its allied Arab militias have a terrifying record of massacre, rape and ethnic cleansing. Human rights organisations have accused it of genocide against the Massalit people of West Darfur.

Zaghawa communities in el-Fasher fear that if the Joint Forces are defeated, they will suffer savage reprisals at the hands of the RSF.

If we hit 40+ again this year a lot of vulnerable people in this country are going to die, me included.

The standard for acceptable housing here is very poor, many places are very shoddily (or just not at all) insulated and it's common to have really bad ventilation. In summer, buildings become ovens/saunas that don't cool down till the temp outside is sufficiently cool enough for long enough, and in winter these same accommodations are damp, mouldy and freezing cold as it's so expensive to heat uninsulated places.

Antarctic seal populations are drastically declining as the sea ice melts around them, new research has shown.

Researchers from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) have been monitoring the seal population in the sub-Antarctic since the 1970s, looking in particular at three different seal species in the sub-Antarctic on Signy Island: Weddell seals, Antarctic fur seals and southern elephant seals.

Using satellite records from as far back as 1982, the research team compared annual changes in sea ice concentration with seal population counts conducted since 1977. With five decades worth of data spanning a period of long-term warming and temporary cooling between 1998 and 2014, they were able to draw a comprehensive picture of how seal populations react to changing ice conditions, something shorter-term studies would not be able to achieve.

The study, published in the scientific journal Global Change Biology, found Weddell seals (leptonychotes weddellii), which rely on stable sea ice to rest, breed and feed, had declined by 54% since 1977. Similarly, Antarctic fur seals (arctocephalus gazella), which breed on land but are affected by food chain shifts, have declined by 47%.

Archived

• Brazilian and Chinese authorities — including Presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Xi Jinping — recently discussed a proposed railway that would connect Brazil’s Atlantic coast to Peru’s new Pacific-facing Chancay Port, cutting through the Amazon.
• From Lucas do Rio Verde, a major agricultural hub in the state of Mato Grosso, the railway would be built from scratch, advancing into the Amazon’s Arc of Deforestation.
• Planners intend to build the Amazonian section of the railway alongside existing highways, a strategy aimed at minimizing environmental impacts and streamlining the licensing process.
• However, environmental activists warn that the Bioceanic Corridor, together with newly planned roads, waterways and ports, could accelerate deforestation and degradation in the rainforest.

[...]

For China, the Bioceanic Corridor is a promising connection to the Chancay Port, one of many projects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, also known as the New Silk Road — a strategy aimed at expanding China’s trade capacity and global influence. In November, President Xi Jinping visited Peru to inaugurate the new port, located about 75 km (47 mi) from the capital, Lima. The $3.4 billion project is led by the Chinese state-owned company COSCO, which holds a 60% stake in the venture.

[...]

The Bioceanic Corridor does not yet have a fully defined route, but the Brazilian government’s proposal is already known. Starting from the Atlantic coast, the plan is to link the three sections of the West-East Integration Railway (FIOL) with two segments of the Central-West Integration Railway (FICO), both at different stages of construction at the moment. This route would pass through the Matopiba region, an expanding agricultural frontier for soy and cattle, which accounted for 75% of deforestation in the biodiverse Cerrado savanna in 2024.

[...]

The Kok River, once a lifeline for communities across northern Thailand, is facing an environmental catastrophe.

archived (Wayback Machine)

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/67063993

Highlights

Global & regional analysis of all GHG drivers (1820–2050)

Economic growth (+81Gt) overwhelmed efficiency gains (−31Gt)

Carbon intensity must immediately fall 3 × faster (−2.25 %/yr) to 2050.

Regional drivers: population vs affluence patterns vary sharply.

Reveals unprecedented gap between trends and climate needs.

Abstract

Identifying the socio-economic drivers behind greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to design mitigation policies. Existing studies predominantly analyze short-term CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, neglecting long-term trends and other GHGs. We examine the drivers of all greenhouse gas emissions between 1820–2050 globally and regionally. The Industrial Revolution triggered sustained emission growth worldwide—initially through fossil fuel use in industrialized economies but also as a result of agricultural expansion and deforestation. Globally, technological innovation and energy mix changes prevented 31 (17–42) Gt CO2e emissions over two centuries. Yet these gains were dwarfed by 81 (64–97) Gt CO2e resulting from economic expansion, with regional drivers diverging sharply: population growth dominated in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, while rising affluence was the main driver of emissions elsewhere. Meeting climate targets now requires the carbon intensity of GDP to decline 3 times faster than the global best 30-year historical rate (–2.25 % per year), which has not improved over the past five decades. Failing such an unprecedented technological change or a substantial contraction of the global economy, by 2050 global mean surface temperatures will rise more than 3 °C above pre-industrial levels.

archived (Wayback Machine)

This is our latest attempt to get to the root of what men are going through—not just what’s happening, but why.

It’s worth noting that the later stages of capitalism, along with corporate greed and an evolving career landscape, affect all of us. But the exploitation of grifters in the manosphere is unique to men.

Think we missed something? Leave a comment and help us fill in the gaps

00:00 - Intro: What Happened to Men? Why are so many men falling apart? This isn’t just about loneliness or school stats—it’s about decades of lies, political betrayal, and a fantasy that was never built to last.

00:55 - Chapter 1: The Golden Era That Never Was The post-WWII American Dream promised men stability and status—but only for a select few. When the economy changed, the myth stayed, and resentment took root.

04:46 - Chapter 2: Reagan and the Great Betrayal Reaganomics didn’t just cut taxes—it gutted the working class. A new gospel was born: hustle harder, blame the poor, and ignore the billionaires laughing all the way to the bank.

07:30 - Chapter 3: The Masculinity Vacuum Once purpose disappeared, the grift moved in. Grievance merchants filled the void with rage, cosplay masculinity, and a monthly subscription box for insecurity.

10:46 - Chapter 4: The Right-Wing Pickup Artist The right didn’t rescue men—they monetized their confusion. Trump & Co. turned pain into politics and sold fascism in flannel.

14:30 - Chapter 5: How to Fix It (No Promo Code Required) No more gimmicks. No more gurus. Rebuilding manhood means ditching the cosplay, owning your choices, and choosing contribution over clout.

19:00 - Outro: Build Something Real The challenge isn’t to reclaim a lost identity—it’s to build something better. For those done chasing nostalgia, the work starts now.

archived (Wayback Machine)

Morning frosts have hit Serbian fruit production hard, mainly affecting early stone fruit varieties.

In the Čačak region, experts from the Institute of Fruit Growing report that 95% of apricot crops have been destroyed.

The damage varies by location, with Vojvodina experiencing more than 90% loss in lowland areas, while areas near Belgrade show 40-50% damage.

Cherries and pears have also suffered, with a complete damage assessment expected by the end of April.

Temperatures are expected to be up to two degrees Celsius hotter than average across the region, with forecasts for above-average rains, according to a monsoon outlook released by Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) on Wednesday.

"Rising temperatures and more extreme rain raise the risk of water-induced disasters such as floods, landslides, and debris flows, and have longer-term impacts on glaciers, snow reserves, and permafrost," Arun Bhakta Shrestha, a senior adviser at ICIMOD, said in a statement.

The summer monsoon, which brings South Asia 70-80 percent of its annual rainfall, is vital for agriculture and therefore for the livelihoods of millions of farmers and for food security in a region that is home to around two billion people.

However, it also brings destruction through landslides and floods every year. Melting glaciers add to the volume of water, while unregulated construction in flood-prone areas exacerbates the damage.

"What we have seen over the years are also cascading disasters where, for example, heavy rainfall can lead to landslides, and landslides can actually block rivers. We need to be aware about such possibilities," Saswata Sanyal, manager of ICIMOD's Disaster Risk Reduction work, told AFP.

Last year's monsoon season brought devastating landslides and floods across South Asia and killed hundreds of people, including more than 300 in Nepal.

At the landmark Paris climate agreement, nearly every country in the world pledged to a goal to limit warming to well below 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels by 2100, and work toward a more ambitious goal to limit warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F). The hope is that such a limit will help Earth avoid the most catastrophic effects of climate change.

However, a recent review suggests that even the more ambitious ceiling of 1.5°C may be too warm for the planet’s polar ice sheets and trigger massive sea level rise.

archived (Wayback Machine):

• Mongabay article
• review cited

“Specifically, if action in line with 2°C or 1.5°C pathways were to start in 2024, then global emissions would need to be reduced by an average of 4 and 7.5 per cent every year until 2035, respectively. If enhanced action … is delayed until 2030, then the required annual emission reductions rise to an average of 8 per cent and 15 per cent to limit warming to 2°C or 1.5°C, respectively.”[7]

No matter what you think of those numbers, the fact is that none of that is going to happen. Greenhouse gas emissions are going up, not down, and not one G20 government has shown any willingness to even slow down the increase, let alone go into reverse. The United States has withdrawn from the UN climate process, and Trump has cancelled climate change programs. If other big emitters don’t take up the slack, or just fail to carry through on their Paris Agreement commitments, 3°C will be passed, probably sooner then the climate models project.

archived Wayback Machine)

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/23230801

Climate models that give a low warming from increases in greenhouse gases do not match satellite measurements. Future warming will likely be worse than thought unless society acts, according to a new study published in Science.

So, worse then thought then, we are after all barely pretending to reduce emissions amd in many cases weve eschewed even that.

Scientists monitoring the world's largest penguin species used satellites to assess sixteen colonies in the Antarctic Peninsula, Weddell Sea and Bellingshausen Sea, representing nearly a third of the global emperor penguin population.

What they found was "probably about 50-percent worse" than even the most pessimistic estimate of current populations using computer modelling, said Peter Fretwell, who tracks wildlife from space at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS).

Researchers know that climate change is driving the losses but the speed of the declines is a particular cause for alarm.