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Can we look at trends between consenting adults (who are likely watching porn of real people by the way) as an indicator of what pedophiles will do? I'm not so sure. It's not like step sibling sex is suddenly through the roof now with it being the "trend" in porn.
Looking specifically at fake rape porn maybe and seeing if it increases rates of rape in the real world might be a better indicator.
That's fair. I tried to make clear that my interpretation is not in any way scientific or authoritative. Better correlations are probably possible.
ETA on further thought: I wonder if prevalence of incest porn has had an effect on actual incest rates. That might be a much closer correlation due to the similar social taboo. But I'm not sure we have good data on that, either.
Do you think people like Andrew Tate have caused more rapes to occur? Like do you think his rhetoric encourages a rapist mindset in his listeners?